New Zealand Sobering Up to Chinese Threat – The American Spectator

New Zealand’s defense and intelligence establishments are sobering up to the growing Chinese threat posed to both the island and the region, publishing concerns in recent documents including a National Security Strategy, Defense Policy and Strategy Statement, Future Force Design Principles, and a Security Threat Environment profile.

Meanwhile, polls in New Zealand indicate the country’s citizens are increasingly wary of China. According to one poll, 40 percent of respondents stated that China will be a significant threat to New Zealand within the next 10 years, while another poll found that respondents believed there was a 50 percent chance that it would face interference from a foreign country in the next year, and there was a 42 percent chance that New Zealand would be involved in an “armed conflict” in the next 10 years. (READ MORE: Bye, Jacinda)

According to the Defense Policy and Strategy Statement, “Beijing[…]is increasingly able to project military and paramilitary force beyond its immediate region, including across the wider Indo-Pacific[…]Potential triggers include increasing tensions relating to Taiwan, maritime tensions, and competing claims in the South and East China Seas.” 

The National Security Strategy document more explicitly outlines the threat: 

[China’s] efforts to develop ports and airports in the region bring the possibility that these could become dual-use facilities (serving both civilian and military purposes) or fully fledged military bases in the future, which would fundamentally alter the strategic balance in the region. The 2022 China-Solomon Islands security agreement and ongoing attempts to create new groupings in the Pacific demonstrate China’s ambition to link economic and security cooperation, create competing regional architectures, and expand its influence with Pacific Island countries across policing, defence, digital, and maritime spheres.

New Zealand is also recognizing the increased threat that China poses to its homeland as well. The National Security Strategy maintains that “Chinese state-sponsored actors have exploited cyber vulnerabilities in New Zealand in ways that undermine our security.” The Security Threat Environment profile noted “the continued targeting of New Zealand’s diverse ethnic Chinese communities[…]carried out by groups and individuals linked to the intelligence arm of the People’s Republic of China (PRC).” Canada’s spy agency had warned of this precise behavior by China in New Zealand back in a 2018 report, where Canada stated that China’s “political influence activities in New Zealand have now reached a critical level.” New Zealand’s Security Threat Environment profile also recognizes “ongoing activity in and against New Zealand and our home region that is linked to the PRC’s intelligence services” which amounts to a “complex intelligence concern for New Zealand.” 

CCP Press Responds with Propaganda

China’s press has responded to New Zealand’s assessment with typical propaganda points. A Global Times editorial categorically denied all New Zealand’s claims, stating that the CCP “has expressed strong dissatisfaction and firm opposition to content that relates to China,” and categorically denied interfering in the internal affairs of any country. Addressing New Zealand’s intelligence assessment that the PRC was targeting ethnic Chinese communities living in the island nation, that same editorial claimed that “[t]he Chinese government engages in normal exchanges and interactions with Chinese nationals overseas to protect their life and property safety, and safeguard[s] their legitimate rights and interests in accordance with international laws[…]and laws and regulations of the host countries.” (READ MORE: China Is Preparing for War – Are We?)

Another Global Times editorial advised New Zealand’s government and citizens to be wary of “hawkish politicians.” A readout from Xinhua summarizing several of New Zealand’s policy documents oddly didn’t mention China at all, possibly in an alternative tactic to whitewash the news in China’s favor.

The United States needs to leverage New Zealand’s concerns by bringing them into the fold of a regional alliance to counter against the Chinese threat. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has stated that “the door is very much open for New Zealand” to join AUKUS Pillar Two, New Zealand’s defense establishment has categorized AUKUS Pillar Two as an “opportunity,” and there are strong reasons for the island country to join. However, New Zealand’s foreign minister is currently non-committal, and the political opposition and many other activists oppose such a move. Only with strong leadership from the U.S. and New Zealand can New Zealand and the region hope to counter the insidious threat of the CCP.