McCormick & Oz lead in latest poll

(WHTM) – A new WHTM/Emerson College Polling/The Hill Pennsylvania primary poll shows David McCormick and Mehmet Oz continuing to lead in the Republican race for one of Pennsylvania’s U.S. Senate seats.

In a poll of 1,000 likely Republican Pennsylvania voters, former hedge fund CEO McCormick finished first with 17.8%, followed by the former television personality Oz with 16.6%.

Kathy Barnette finished third with 10.2%, followed by Jeff Bartos at 8.9% and Carla Sands at 7.7%.

George Bochetto received 3.8% and Sean Gale finished with 2.5%. Nearly 33% of voters reported they were undecided.

Candidates who receive at least 5% in the poll can qualify for a debate hosted by Nexstar Media Inc. and our media partners, WPXI-TV in Pittsburgh.

When undecided voters were asked they are leaning towards at this time, McCormick’s lead increased to 27.2%, followed by Mehmet Oz with almost 20.6%.

Jeff Bartos jumped to third with 17.1% and Kathy Barnette finished fourth with 14.8%. Carla Sands (11.4%), George Bochetto (4.6%), and Sean Gale (4.3%) rounded out the poll.

Among the undecided voters, Oz finished fourth behind McCormick, Bartos, and Barnette.

Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling noted, “McCormick has a strong base of support across most demographics, whereas Oz seems to lack a clear base.”

Republicans are still waiting for former President Trump to weigh in on the race and a majority of voters say they would support a Trump-endorsed candidate. Last week’s poll found that 61% of Pennsylvania Republican voters would support Trump’s endorsed candidate.

Among white voters in the latest Emerson College poll, Oz and McCormick were virtually tied, while McCormick led among African Americans.

McCormick held a slim lead among voters 50-64 and 65 or older, while Oz led the 30-49 age range by 3.5%. Sixty-one percent of voters 18-29 were undecided, but when asked who they’re leaning towards a majority supported McCormick.

Oz received no support among the youngest age group.

Bartos picked up undecided support in the 30-49 age group and tied McCormick among 65 and older. Barnette picked up significant support among the 50-64 and 65-older undecided voters.

McCormick led those with a high school education or less by 2.3% over Oz and college graduates by 2.9%. McCormick also leads among the post-graduate degree voters by 4.1% over Oz.

The largest lead for McCormick is among urban/city voters with 27.6% support. He also leads rural voters and finished second to Oz in suburban support by almost 10%. Barnette and Bartos also received double digit support among suburban voters.

In a March 31 WHTM/Emerson College Polling/The Hill poll, Oz and McCormick were tied at 14%. Barnette’s support increased by nearly 4% and Bartos surpassed Sands after previously finishing fifth.

The U.S. Senate seat is opening with the retirement of Republican Pat Toomey.

Methodology

The Emerson College/The Hill Pennsylvania Republican primary poll was conducted April 3-4, 2022. The Republican primary sample consisted of very likely voters, n=1,000, with a Credibility Interval (CI) similar to a poll’s margin of error (MOE) of +/- 3 percentage points. The data sets were weighted by age and education based on 2020 turnout modeling. It is important to remember that subsets based on gender, age, ethnicity, and region carry with them higher margins of error, as the sample size is reduced. Data was collected using a cellphone sample of SMS-to-web, an online panel provided by Amazon MTurk, and an Interactive Voice Response (IVR) system of landlines.

The full poll results can be found here.