Recent polling, U.S. Senate race updates

He y,everybody. Welcome to the January 21st Friday morning editn ioof WMUR Politics Plus. I’m WMUR political director Adam Sexton and we’re streaming to you on Twitter and Facebook. Uh just taing lka little politics on this Friday morning after we wrapped up our taping a close up. Uh nt twao bring in the man, the myth, the legend from the New Hampshire Institute of Politics, Ne il Levesque. Uh how you doing today, Neil? I’m doing great, Adam. Thank you. So, you got a new poll that was out just a couple days o. agUh we got a sneak preview of that and it’s got some very interesting findings but let’s stt arat the very top. The headline if you will on this question you’ve been asking throughout the last year of you know, is the country on the right dictreion or you know, on the right heading in the right direction or on the ong wrtrack and and 74% now saying on the wrong ack.tr You know, what do you think about this? That’s an asontromal icnumber. But I don’t think we, you know, we should be too surprised by it, right? So, think about people in their daily lives and the fact that you’re going to the grocery stor e,you’re paying a lot more money for groceries or gasoline. Uh everyone having to wear a mask again and you know, everybody, your stsier, brother, kids, all have COVID and you feel like you can’t take a trip, you can’t go anywhere. So, it ‘sit’s not a good feeling, I think there out there in America and our poll picked it right up. 74%. Now why does this matter in politics? Well, when you take individual names out of the equation, meaning e thbrand, if you will, of certain politicians and you just say, do u yofeel good about the country right now? And when people don’t fe elgood about the direction or the track that the country’s on. They ndte to vo teagainst the incumbents. And so as we go towards next year’s midterms, this 74% number is really really important. Um it’s very important for we have four membs erof e thdelegation who are Democrats, three of which are on the ball otin e thfall. One governor who’s obviously on the ballot next fall and so all of these numbers matter to those those folks. Ye, ahI think you put it really we did the interview a couple days ago saying it’s just like a toxic environment to exist as an incumbent on the ballot. Not a lot you can do. You’re you’re you know swimming against the stream essentially. Ta keus thugroh you know underwater on favorability, unfavorability for every federal member of that delegation, isn’t it? It is. Shaheen is the highest number. She always pulls the highest forty-eight forty-eight Um but this is somebody who’s been in office for a long long time and she’s still 48 48 and she’s pumping out good ne. ws She’s f ofof the fact that last year she a successful reelection and she’s still at 48 forty-eight. We’ve seen Sununu deincle slightly to 5-three 44, but he’s still e th most popular politician in New Hampshire. Uh at that high lel.ve And then we see where we get into Hassan erwhe all of the focus really is. She’s in 45 positi, ve51 negative. That is a troubled ar. eaUh it’s not new necessarily. She’s been that for que itsome time. It’s almost as if she sank with the other Democratic members of the delegation and she’s sort of at ththe at w lopoint. Now, if you want to look at the low point and think of it as sort of these low 40 numbers. She’s at forty-fi, vepositi, vePappas 43, positive, d anCuster 41 positive. So, that’s kind of that low. If you’re a Democrat, you like them, damn the rptoedo Uh so that’s what some of the es folks are are facing but that when you’re not over 50% and you’re on the ballot in the fall, that could be en seas trouble. Yeah, it’s one of those watch out type situations. It’s interesting. You mentioned Governor Sununu who who had that really high favorability rating at the beginning of e thpandemic. Uh it has seen that kind of come back down as I think that’s happ enedaround the country for for everyone who’s gone up and down. That’s mirrored that dissatisfaction you’ve talked about with the extended nature of the pandemic. I thought it was interesting. You asked the question of of the one thousand 215 peop leregistered voters who were part of this poll. You know, do you think that Governor Su nuhas done a good enough job to get a warrant reelection or is it time for somebody new? And that was 45% in in terms of reelection. Yes, 45% someone new and then I think 10% unsu ret buthat that was kind of an eye opener right there. I’m I’m sure maybe Democrats are looking at saying, gosh, that that is closer than I think I would have expectedat let asand the Democrats have to be wondering now, hey, maybe it’s time to get a candidate out there in the field against this guy. Well, certainly that was not an opener. thI ink that th atwas sort of the surprise of the poll. However, if you look at that same, do you prefer this candidate or the u yoknow, unknown candidate that’s the perfect candidate if you ll. wi Would you choose the new person? I always liken it to, you know, the wife is asked, you, would you like your husband or would you like Tom Brady? u Yoknow, of course, everyone thinks of Tom Brady and so therefore, that’s what their what their dream candidate would be and then they choose that person. r Fo Democrats, on the ballot, the alternative is t nogood either. So, the 4545 is interesting for Sununu and I think it’s sort of probably is not a shocker to m hibut again, his favorability is still at fifty-three, 44 and I think if the the big number for Nunu out erthtoo e I think is 62% approved of the way he’s handled the pandemic. Now, that’s in contrast to 41, I believe, for Biden. So, you have this huge swing rit gh there where people say, the president has not handled e th pandemic well, but Sununu has and I think that that’s something th atSununu can shine with. Um interesting in our poll too is that only eight percent think that COVID th at COVID in pandemic is the number one issue. Hm. Which sort of . meIf you take taxes, the economy, jobs, and you kind of put those two sets of sues is all together. It’s overwhelming that that’s what people care abt ouAnd if they’re caring about it, is it inflation atth they’re concerned about? Because we have a low unemployment rate. So, if you’re concerned abt outhe economy and jobs, you would think that you would get high rcmah for that. But instead, people are sort of glum about the economy and it’s their number one issue. Yeah, it’s fuy. nnYou mentioned you know, the Tom Brady thing. I think for the New Hampshire Democrats in the in the governor’s race, Tom Bry adis not walking through that door. They’re they’re looking for their version of Jimmy Garoppolo, you know, right? They needed that free agent who they’re going to be able to sign who can you , knowrun the offense if you will and see what can be done against quite a behemoth the er in Sununu in in this election year. Uh I want to get into the head toheads that you have. That was a the very bottom. It’s like, you know, okay, alright you know, meat and potaes, tovegetables, l althis stuff, flip, flip, flip. There’s and then there’s those US Senate matchups, the head to heads between Maggie Hassan and retired Genel ran DoBoldock, Senate President Chuck Morse, and then Londonderry Town Manager Kevin Smith. Uh take us through each one of those. Uh how does Hassan match up against Geranel Buldock? Well, she does she would defeat any of those three members of the that you st judescribed that are considering running for the for the office. Bullduck being the only real declared candidate. Um and he s hascores e thhighest number of people in a match up twn eebehe and Hassan. One thing that we learned was that Hassan fidenitely dodged a bullet by not being challenged bySununo. But in the case of these other challengers, the main sue is is really noone knows who they are. Now, the most know who Bullduck is. He ran last time and he’s been running ever since. He’s had some very, very controversial statements th at attend to attract attention from certain segments and so maybe that is the perhaps the reason he’s more well known. But you take the Senate Presidt enand then town manager Kevin Smith. Uh these are people who are generally not known and so the public says well we wedon’t really know who that is yet. So it’s hard to to do a match up beeen twthe two. The good news for Republicans are is erthe’s been a lot of money spent in this US Senate race. Um Hassan has basically remained in that low forties. Uh positive rangti. She’s not gone over fifty. Despite the fact there’s been millions of dollars…