Democrats Set to Lose Control of Senate in 2022, Polling Suggests

Democrats could be on course to lose control of the Senate in the 2022 midterm elections after just two years in the majority as polls show tight races for key senators.

The party’s Senate majority currently depends on Vice President Kamala Harris, who has a casting vote in the chamber in which Democrats and Republicans are split 50-50.

A single loss to the Republicans in 2022 would hand the Senate back to the GOP and a new poll shows Nevada Senator Catherine Cortez Masto may be vulnerable next year.

An internal poll from Cortez Masto’s Republican opponent, Adam Laxalt, conducted from September 11 to 15 shows Laxalt leading Cortez Masto by 39 percent to 37 percent.

The poll showed 12 percent of respondents were undecided and another 12 percent chose “none of the above.” That is an option in Nevada races.

The poll was conducted by Republican pollster Chris Wilson of WPA Intelligence among 504 likely voters and has a margin of error of 4.4 percent.

Poll tracker FiveThirtyEight gives WPA Intelligence a B/C rating.

“Internal polling from September shows that this has quickly become a very tight race,” a polling memo from the Laxalt campaign said. “With each passing day of the Biden presidency, the environment gets better for Republicans.”

An VCreek/AMG poll conducted from August 9 to 14 showed Laxalt defeating Cortez Masto by a 10-point margin. The sample size was 567 registered voters with a margin of error of 4.11 percent. Its FiveThirtyEight rating is B/C.

Cortez Masto isn’t the only Democratic incumbent who’s looking vulnerable. Senator Maggie Hassan of New Hampshire could also be in for a tough fight.

A Saint Anselm College poll conducted between August 24 and 26 showed Republican Chris Sununu beating Hassan by 49 percent to 48 percent. That poll surveyed 1,855 registered voters and had a margin of error of 2.3 percent. Saint Anselm College enjoys an A/B rating from FiveThirtyEight.

Another Democrat facing a potentially close race is Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia, who defeated GOP incumbent Kelly Loeffler in a special election in January.

Former NFL player Herschel Walker is running as the Republican candidate against Warnock and has won the endorsement of former President Donald Trump.

A Public Policy Polling (PPP) survey from August 4 to 5 showed Warnock beating Walker by just two points. It was conducted among 622 voters and had a margin of error of 3.9 percent. PPP has received an A- rating from FiveThirtyEight.

Though the most recent polling may paint a bleak picture for Democrats, there are still possible gains to be made in 2022. There are open Senate seats in North Carolina and Pennsylvania, where Republican incumbents are retiring. Both are considered battleground states in the midterms.

Battle in Wisconsin

One race to watch will be Wisconsin, where incumbent Republican Senator Ron Johnson hasn’t yet announced whether he will run for another term.

If he chooses to run, he could find himself in a challenging race as a Clarity Campaign Labs poll from September 8 to 11 showed him tied with potential Democratic candidate Mandela Barnes, who is the state’s lieutenant governor.

The poll was conducted among 756 likely voters with a margin of error of 3.6 percent and FiveThirtyEight gives the pollster a B/C rating.

If Johnson decides not to run, Democrats will be likely to heavily target the open Senate seat.