Biden Makes a U-Turn on China’s Taiwan Invasion Risk – The American Spectator

On Aug. 10, when President Joe Biden labeled the Chinese economy a ticking time bomb, he predicted that bad folks can do bad things when they face problems. A month later, after meeting with Chinese Premier Li Qiang at the G20 CEO Summit on Sept. 10, Biden made a U-turn in his statement that China’s economic downturn would not lead Beijing to invade Taiwan because China does not have the same capacity that it had in the past.

How can we understand Biden’s two contrasting assessments regarding the possibility of China invading Taiwan? The initial judgment was based on the belief that Xi Jinping was an irrational decision-maker, whereas the latter judgment was grounded in the assumption that Xi was a rational decision-maker. Undoubtedly, the personality and emotions of a country’s top leader always influence its foreign policy-making process. However, it seems impossible for Xi to transform his character from an irrational one to a rational one within just a month. (READ MORE: Xi’s Counterfeit Confucian Dream)

It is true that Xi has his hands full now while dealing with China’s economic turmoil and a purge within his inner circle. Recently, political upheaval has been unfolding among high-ranking Chinese officials. Xi removed Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang and the top two generals from the People’s Liberation Army’s Rocket Force two months ago. U.S. Ambassador to Japan Rahm Emanuel posted a comment on Elon Musk’s platform, speculating that the defense minister, the former commander of the China Manned Space Program, had disappeared from the public eye for over two weeks. The U.S. believes that Li is under investigation and has been stripped of his responsibilities as defense minister.

Recent Purges Suggest Xi Is Preparing for Military Action

China’s Rocket Force is responsible for developing an expanding arsenal of long-range missiles and nuclear weapons, which play a critical role in deterring and potentially attacking Taiwan and the U.S. military. The most plausible explanation for the dismissal of these high-ranking military officials is that their corruption has had a detrimental impact on the quality of PLA equipment, particularly within the Rocket Force, thus affecting Xi Jinping’s scheduled timetable for unifying Taiwan.

The PLA Daily recently published a rare article stating that a certain unit of the Rocket Force had revealed its “weaknesses” in combat effectiveness during a drill. This implies a gap between actual battle readiness and the Rocket Force’s level of preparation. Any delay in the reunification of Taiwan could undermine the legitimacy of Xi’s third term as president and his global ambitions. Evidently, Xi’s surgical operation on top military officials does not signify a change in his determination to unify Taiwan but rather reflects his determination about the prospects of achieving this unification.

Xi has consistently called for the PLA to be ready to fight and reunify Taiwan — by force, if necessary. After winning his third term at the 20th National Congress of the CCP in October 2022, as commander-in-chief, he immediately inspected the Central Military Commission’s Joint Operations Command Center and delivered a speech, calling for the first time on the People’s Liberation Army to “focus all its energies on preparing for war.” In July 2023, Xi inspected Eastern Theatre Command, the branch central to keeping up cross-strait pressure on Taiwan, stating that the PLA must deepen planning for war and improve its ability to win any war.

The reunification of Taiwan remains a steadfast and non-negotiable core interest of the PRC. As the sentiments of people on both sides of the Taiwan Strait continue to diverge, the window for peaceful reunification is slowly narrowing. China has not renounced the possibility of using force to achieve the reunification of Taiwan. Instead, China has been steadily enhancing its readiness for potential military action to achieve reunification. This has involved the modernization of military operational systems, the development of advanced weaponry, and frequent and large-scale military exercises in the vicinity of Taiwan as preparations for taking over the island. (READ MORE: Claim: Cold War History Shows Containing China Won’t Work)

The Chinese government has been intensifying its propaganda campaign on the issue of Taiwan, depicting the island as a breakaway province that must be reunified with the motherland. Simultaneously, China has employed diplomatic measures to isolate Taiwan, persuading countries to switch diplomatic recognition from Taipei to Beijing, obstructing Taiwan’s participation in international organizations, and enacting an anti-secession law that authorizes the use of force if peaceful reunification is deemed unattainable.

China’s Crumbling Economy Won’t Stop Xi

In the economic sphere, Xi introduced the dual circulation strategy, which prioritizes “internal circulation” — focusing on domestic production, distribution, and consumption through economic innovation and upgrades — as the main driver of China’s development. The dual circulation strategy is China’s preparation for mitigating the economic and financial sanctions imposed by the United States and Western countries in the event of China resorting to military actions against Taiwan.

Biden’s recent assessment is not only inaccurate in reflecting Xi’s intention but also contradicts the current tension in the Taiwan Strait. In April 2023, China announced the development of a new hypersonic missile that could potentially target Taiwan. China frequently sends a record number of military aircraft into the Taiwan Strait and conducts large-scale military exercises near Taiwan, simulating a blockade of the island. In August 2023, China initiated military drills around Taiwan in an angry response to brief stopovers in the United States by Vice President William Lai. According to Taiwan’s defense ministry, on Sept. 13 alone, 28 Chinese warplanes, including J-10 fighters, entered the island’s air defense identification zone.

Experts believe that the PLA’s frequent military exercises surrounding Taiwan are a real preparation for a possible invasion of the island.

China’s current economic downturn is unlikely to impair its military capability to invade Taiwan. China has been increasing its military spending and modernizing its forces for decades, with a clear strategic goal of unifying Taiwan with the mainland. The official figure for China’s military budget in 2023 is “1.55 trillion RMB, or about $240 billion.” However, U.S. intelligence suggests that China’s actual military spending is much larger than the official figure, estimated at $700 billion per year, making it the second largest in the world, right behind the U.S.

China also holds a significant advantage in terms of personnel, equipment, and technology compared to Taiwan, which has a much smaller and less-well-funded military. Moreover, according to newly released data, China’s economic downturn in terms of growth is stabilizing, and economic activity appears to have improved in August. It is highly likely that the Chinese economy will continue to support China’s goal of reunifying Taiwan under Xi’s highly centralized rule.

Moreover, when the leaders of authoritarian China decide whether to attack Taiwan, their top consideration is not economics but politics. When Mao Zedong sent Chinese troops to join the Korean War on Oct. 19, 1950, China’s economic situation was still in a state of recovery from the long and devastating Chinese Civil War, which had caused widespread destruction to infrastructure and industry, leaving many people in poverty. In the Chinese film The Battle at Lake Changjin, many Chinese soldiers froze to death simply because they did not have warm clothes and enough food to eat. Xi Jinping is a loyal follower of Mao Zedong. It would be hard to predict what Xi would do if he could not stabilize China’s economic and political situation. (READ MORE: See You Later, General Li)

Ample evidence suggests that if the tension in the Taiwan Strait remains stable during Taiwan’s election season, it will be only temporary.

Biden’s U-turn assessment on the possibility of China invading Taiwan not only demonstrates that the U.S. still harbors illusions about the Chinese Communist Party but also sends an inaccurate message to China, Taiwan, and the American public. The U.S. President plays a central role in U.S. foreign relations and shapes public opinion on foreign policy through speeches, press conferences, and other public statements. The role of the U.S. in triangular relations is influential, so any misjudgment made by the U.S. president could be misleading, potentially embroiling China and Taiwan and even drawing in the United States and its regional allies.

Jinghao Zhou is an associate professor of Asian studies at Hobart and William…