The Russia–Ukraine War Must End in Compromise – The American Spectator

In the 16 months since Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, it has become clear that President Vladimir Putin’s aim to install a Russian-subservient government or to annex much of the country’s territory is unlikely to succeed at costs anywhere near what he originally contemplated (or that the establishment that keeps him in power may endlessly tolerate). The remaining question is how much of the territory that Russia has so far occupied can be recaptured by Ukraine.

Given Russia’s status as a nuclear power and a member of the United Nations Security Council, its total expulsion from Ukraine seems for now impractical. In that regard, it is somewhat surprising that more proposals to end the war by compromise are not on the table. The so-far-undefined Chinese proposal, which begins with the proposition that “the sovereignty, independence and territorial integrity of all countries must be effectively upheld,” is by that very token a joke from the start.

We should not forget that, when Ukraine separated from the Soviet Union, the resulting borders with Russia were based on arbitrarily drawn Soviet boundaries, not wholly aligned with ethnicity. Crimea, for example, was assigned to Ukraine by then-Premier Nikita Khrushchev, who was born near the Ukrainian border, married a Ukrainian woman, and started his career as head of the Communist Party of Ukraine! As a consequence of these arbitrary divisions, there are a significant number of Ukrainian citizens in Crimea and south-eastern Ukraine who identify as Russian by virtue of language, religion, or other factors.

Under the foregoing circumstances, it is my opinion that only a face-saving compromise will bring an end to this otherwise brutal, never-ending war. One such compromise would be to cede to Russia irredeemably Russian territory so long as that territory does not surround other Ukrainian territory. Here’s how: Ukraine is divided into 24 provinces (oblasts), 136 districts (raions), and the Autonomous Republic of Crimea. UN forces would enter the Luhansk/Donetsk oblasts, enforce a ceasefire, and supervise a vote in each of the Luhansk/Donetsk raions on whether more than 50 percent of residents would prefer to remain Ukrainian or be incorporated into Russia. To the extent that a group of pro-Russian raions could be aggregated without encircling a pro-Ukrainian raion, that group would be recognize by Ukraine as Russian, with Russia recognizing all remaining raions as Ukrainian.

Because Crimea has no Russian border and was autonomous even before the 2014 Russian annexation, the proposed Luhansk/Donetsk approach is less practical there. Most Crimeans ethnically identify as Russian, but they may not wish to be governed by Putin. I therefore propose a UN-enforced ceasefire and UN-supervised plebiscite asking Crimeans to rank their choices among (1) restoration of Ukrainian autonomy, (2) continuation of Russian stewardship, or (3) national independence (Crimea’s population exceeds that of 17 other European nations). Ranked-choice voting would determine the outcome if no choice won the initial ballot.

Given that the Crimean seaport of Sevastopol is Russia’s only point of naval access to the critically important Black Sea and is on the southernmost tip of the Crimean Peninsula, I propose that Russia be induced into a result that ends its stewardship with an extended lease (e.g., 50 years) during which it would retain exclusive access to its Sevastopol naval facilities.

If Crimea chooses independence, we should not be surprised if it seeks membership in the European Union and NATO. Although Putin might instinctively oppose such membership, on second thought he might ponder the benefits of having an EU and NATO member that shares Russia’s language, religion, and history!

If Russia remains a European nemesis rather than a European partner, it will perforce depend increasingly in economic and military matters on the People’s Republic of China and rogue states like Iran. Unlike potential European partners who, for all their faults, follow moral and democratic rules that would work to the benefit of a neighborly Russia, the Chinese and most rogue governments care not a whit for any nation other than their own and would exploit any Russian dependency for their own exclusive benefit.

In contrast, were Russia to reach a peaceful resolution with Ukraine and restore the democracy it briefly enjoyed after the fall of the Soviet Union, the West would welcome Russia back into the fold of European civilization, where it would likely reach new cultural and economic heights and, perhaps, eventually become Europe’s preeminent nation.

Willaim W. Chip has served as an officer in the U.S. Marine Corps, as an international corporate attorney, and as senior counselor to the Secretary of Homeland Security under the Trump administration.