China is Preparing for War – Are We? – The American Spectator

With annual inflation at only 3 percent in June, and second quarter GDP growing at 2.4 percent, it looks like a return to normalcy. With the S&P Index up over 19 percent year to date, and the NASDAQ Composite Index roaring at 37 percent, and total travel spending up 5.5 percent year to date through May, it is easy to think that while all is still not quite well, it has still gotten a lot better. But not quite so fast. (READ MORE: VIDEO: Joe Biden Touts ‘Bidenomics,’ Ignores Inflation)

As we get and spend, our self-absorbed, consumption-driven democracy does not seem to recognize the presence of a mortal enemy: the Peoples Republic of China. Our leaders waste time tilting at each other in Congress, the Pentagon brass burnish their careers with progressivism, and the media hype the culture wars, as if there were no serious threat to the nation. And so we go about our ways — obsessing over special apps, downing macadamia white chocolate lattes, and sporting cyber helmets to escape reality.

In the meantime, the Chinese Politburo has been hard at work. The Belt and Road Initiative now embraces over 150 countries and an expenditure on their infrastructure of one trillion dollars. The intent is to rewrite the rules for trade and investment, under the command and control of Beijing, displacing the United States and the West, which have controlled the economic order since the end of World War II. Increasing interest rates and the so-called debt trap have hurt some developing countries, particularly Pakistan, where China has committed  $62 billion and still rising.  While Europe is now distancing itself from Beijing (after Greece, Italy, and the Czech Republic had signed up), China with its massive currency reserves has nonetheless bought its way into parts of Asia, Africa, and the Middle East — a rude intrusion, yes, but they need the money. (READ MORE: Honduras Heralds Growth of Chinese Influence in the Western Hemisphere)

China’s aggressive posture toward Taiwan and India are well known, but what is disturbing is their rate of construction of warships, compared to that of the U.S., whose shipbuilders deliver only 1.2 Virginia-class submarines and 1.8 Arleigh Burke-class destroyers to the Navy annually. Further, the Navy’s next generation guided missile destroyer will not be manufactured until 2030, five years later than set forth in the Navy’s fiscal 2020 plan.  China’s navy is expected to increase from 340 ships to 400 by 2025 — in about three years. Supporting this increase is its massive shipyard capacity, reportedly 230 times the size of that of the U.S. In February, U.S. Navy Secretary Carlos Del Toro advised that while China has thirteen shipyards, one of them has more capacity than all U.S. shipyards combined.

Further, as recently pointed out in The American Spectator by Francis P. Sempa, referring to the American author and military historian, Edward Luttwak, reclaiming farmland is a major priority of China’s Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs. China’s reliance upon imported food is well known, and among its leading suppliers are Brazil, the U.S., and the European Union. The implication is that food security will be of paramount importance, since in the event of a conflict with the West, those agricultural exports would be blocked.

Another anticipatory act by China is suspected malware implanted in U.S. telecommunications networks, electricity grids, and other infrastructure. As reported by The New York Times and appearing in The Japan Times, in May Microsoft indicated that it had discovered peculiar code in telecommunications systems in Guam, where Naval Base Guam and Andersen Air Force Base are located. The full extent of malware is evidently not yet known, but the purpose in time of conflict would be to disrupt U.S. infrastructure and immobilize military and civilian assets.

As I have recently written in The American Spectator, CEOs of leading U.S. technology companies as well as physicist Stephen Hawking and former Secretary of State Henry Kissinger have expressed grave concerns about the potential abuse of Artificial Intelligence (AI).  In the hands of authoritarian governments, the potential destructive power of novel AI is alarming.  Appearing in The New York Times of July 30, Alexander C. Karp, CEO and co-founder of Palantir Technologies, a U.S. defense contractor and AI firm, advises that AI could be as transformational in international affairs as nuclear weapons were in the 20^th century.  According to the Center for Security and Emerging Technology (CSET), a policy think tank based at Georgetown University, China aims to be the world leader in AI by 2030.

When China was admitted to the World Trade Organization in 2001, the misguided premise was that through commerce and investment, China would become prosperous and accept well-established rules for global conduct. This has not been the case: What China will respect is a strong military that can deter and win wars.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation makes it abundantly clear: China is the greatest long-term threat to the U.S., as it seeks to be the “world’s greatest superpower” through predatory actions, purloining intellectual property, and cyber disruption of American institutions. Addressing the China threat is stated to be the FBI’s top counterintelligence priority, and the Bureau makes it clear that this is not about the Chinese people.

Earlier this year, CIA Director William Burns said that Chinese President Xi Jinping has ordered his military to be prepared for an invasion of Taiwan by 2027.  More recently U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said that Xi has not yet decided to invade, although he has directed his military to achieve the capability.

At times, democracies have proved to be supine in the face of mortal threats — until there was a cataclysm. The U.S. cannot afford a failure of imagination. The writing is on the wall: Our political leaders must stop their daily preening and jousting, and with the Pentagon, defense contractors and principal subcontractors, and technology establishment unite purposefully to counter the China threat.

Frank Schell is a business strategy consultant and former senior vice president of the First National Bank of Chicago. He was a Lecturer at the Harris School of Public Policy, University of Chicago and is a contributor of opinion pieces to various journals.