The 2022 midterms are on November 8. Here’s what to know.

The 2022 midterm elections are fast approaching, and right now, they’re anything but straightforward.

While Republicans were once favored to win a large House majority and even retake the Senate, things are looking more promising for Democrats as voters across the country have been energized by the issue of abortion rights.

With less than two months to go, there’s a lot that’s still uncertain, from how much Democrats can buck historic trends to just how big a role inflation will continue to play. Here’s a look at the factors in each party’s favor, the policies voters are focused on, and the long-term consequences these elections could have.

What is at stake in the midterms?

This year, as is the case every two years, voters decide who has the majority in both chambers of Congress. In 2022, that means the candidates voters choose in the November 8 midterm elections will determine, to a large degree, whether President Joe Biden can get any new policies passed or if Republicans gain the ability to block most things he wants to do.

All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are on the ballot, as well as 35 Senate seats. (House seats are up every two years, while Senate seats are up every six.)

At the moment, split control seems likely. Democrats currently have narrow majorities in both chambers, and because the same party holds the White House, conditions are ideal for them to pass bills Biden will sign. They’ve had a relatively successful run recently. But forecasts suggest Democrats are likely to lose the House and keep the Senate this fall.

Under a Democratic Senate and Republican House, legislative action will likely halt outside must-pass legislation such as funding the government. Even negotiations over things like that are set to be contentious, with each party seeing these measures as their only vehicles to pass policy.

Were Democrats to lose both chambers, they would be forced to rely on Biden to veto bills they disagree with.

Key state-level offices are also on the ballot in dozens of states, including governors, secretaries of state and attorneys general, along with members of the legislature. At least 12 gubernatorial seats could flip parties — including Massachusetts, Maryland, and Arizona. The winners of those contests will affect state policies on issues as varied as abortion, voting rights and Covid-19.

Which party is expected to win control of Congress?

For now, forecasts from FiveThirtyEight suggest that Republicans would win the House in 74 outcomes out of 100, while Democrats would keep the Senate in 69 outcomes out of 100. Models from the Economist echo these odds.

These projections are based on a slew of factors, including historical trends and polling. They also remain fluid and could change again ahead of the elections.

Both parties have certain dynamics working in their favor. Republicans are expected to see a boost in House races because of the backlash that the president’s party typically experiences during the midterms. As FiveThirtyEight has explained, this pattern is due, in part, to the fact that some voters want to see a check on the president’s power. It’s a trend that’s been remarkably consistent in recent decades, with the president’s party losing House seats in 17 of the 19 midterms since World War II, reports Vox’s Andrew Prokop.

This trend is slightly different in the Senate, where fewer lawmakers are up for reelection and where candidates have to appeal to a broader swath of voters than House candidates do. In Prokop’s analysis, the president’s party lost Senate seats in 13 of the 19 elections since World War II ended.

In both the House and the Senate, recent developments could help Democrats stem their losses or maintain their majority. One major factor is the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, a move that is expected to energize voters to turn out and vote in favor of Democrats this fall.

In the Senate in particular, Republicans face a challenge with nominees that may be divisive and unpopular such as Herschel Walker in Georgia and Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s aggregation of polls that ask people which party they’d support to represent them in Congress in a general election, Democrats are currently running slightly ahead of Republicans with 45 percent support versus 43.7 percent.

What does abortion have to do with the midterms?

Political strategists have identified the US Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in late June as a major turning point for Democrats in the midterms.

Many of these strategists — like Simon Rosenberg and James Carville — believe the threat of further restrictions on abortion access should the GOP take control of Congress, governor’s mansions, and statehouses will energize Democratic turnout in the fall. And in at least four states, abortion rights are literally on the November ballot, marking a record number of abortion-related measures that have been considered in a single year to date.

Some Republicans have already floated plans to consider a nationwide abortion ban after 15 weeks of pregnancy should they retake control of Congress, and 13 red states are set to implement their “trigger bans” by the end of September. Those policies defy the 85 percent of Americans who think that abortion should be legal in all or some circumstances, according to a long-running survey by Gallup.

While abortion is still behind the economy, gun policy, and education in terms of voters’ top priorities, it appears to be animating voters. In New York’s 19th, the Democratic winner of a special election centered his campaign on abortion access. In Kansas, voters turned out in record numbers to resoundingly reject a constitutional amendment that would have allowed state lawmakers to further restrict abortion access in the state. Young people (particularly young women) are also registering to vote at a significantly higher rate in states where abortion rights are under threat.

What are the other issues and policies that are affecting voters?

Abortion, of course, is just one of the major issues this election season. Voters’ priorities vary depending on party affiliation, class, and education, according to polling this spring and summer.

Gallup, which has been tracking the issues most important to voters over the last few months, consistently finds economic issues ranking as top of mind. General dissatisfaction with the government, abortion, and immigration are among the remaining top concerns.

How important each issue is depends on whom you ask. Republican voters say they are most concerned with inflation, immigration, and abortion (in that order) according to a recent NPR/Marist poll. Democrats, meanwhile, ranked abortion, the January 6 committee hearings, and health care as top of mind.

Looking at just white voters with and without college degrees in the same poll, the breakdown appears similar. White college graduates strongly approve of Joe Biden’s job performance, back Democrats by a two to one margin, and are most concerned with abortion, inflation, and the January 6th hearings. Non-college-educated white voters, meanwhile, strongly disapprove of Biden, back Republicans, and are worried about inflation, abortion, and immigration.

For most of the year, the economy and record inflation eroded trust and satisfaction with the Biden administration and congressional Democrats. Much of that support is slowly returning, and reducing the drag that an unpopular Biden has on congressional Democratic candidates. Political independents, who play pivotal roles in swinging elections, still rank inflation as their top issue. But after the overturning of Roe, the January 6th committee’s trickle of revelations, and student loan cancellation, Democrats — and Biden — have gotten a boost.

It also helps Democrats that an unpopular Donald Trump is back in the news.

Trump is out of office. How is he still a factor here?

By his design and not, the former president has made this year’s Republican primary season all about him. He has tried to be a kingmaker, doling out more than 200 endorsements as punishments and rewards — though most have been in uncompetitive races where the incumbent was already a shoo-in for victory. He has loudly campaigned for election-deniers and conspiracy theorists, elevating right-wing candidates in Arizona, Georgia, and Wyoming.

His chosen candidates have defeated just about every Republican who voted to impeach him after the January 6, 2021, insurrection. According to an NPR tracker, his endorsed pick has won 16 out of 18 open House primaries (where there was no incumbent running) and beaten the incumbent in four out of six House races.

A candidate backed by Trump has so far won every Senate primary race but one (Alaska’s primary allows four candidates to advance to the general). But those Senate picks aren’t faring well so…