New York Times elections analyst flags ‘warning signs’ for Democrats in 2022 midterms

New York Times political analyst Nate Cohn wrote the “warning signs” were flashing again on Democratic polling in areas where they “missed most” in the 2020 election polls. 

“That warning sign is flashing again: Democratic Senate candidates are outrunning expectations in the same places where the polls overestimated [President] Biden in 2020 and [Hillary] Clinton in 2016,” he wrote in a newsletter on Monday.

Cohn wrote that early in the 2020 cycle, Biden was outperforming Clinton in the same places that polls “overestimated” her numbers in 2016, and said that while it didn’t exactly mean they would be wrong, it was a “warning sign.” 

While Biden won the 2020 election, state-by-state average polling results often predicted far larger margins of victories for him than he actually got, such as in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Nevada and Michigan. He also held polling leads in Florida and North Carolina, which were won by President Trump, and surveys showed small leads for Trump in Texas, Iowa, and Ohio, which he went on to win comfortably.

WISCONSIN DEM SENATE CANDIDATE SPENT NEARLY $600K ON POLICE DETAIL WHILE COZYING UP TO DEFUND POLICE MOVEMENT

Cohn described some polling in Wisconsin that showed Democrat Mandela Barnes ahead of Sen. Ron Johnson, R-Wis., by seven points. 

MILWAUKEE, WISCONSIN – AUGUST 07: Wisconsin Lieutenant Governor Mandela Barnes, the Democratic nominee for the U.S. senate, speaks during a campaign event at The Wicked Hop on August 07, 2022 in Milwaukee, Wisconsin. (Photo by Scott Olson/Getty Images)
(Scott Olson/Getty Images)

“But in this case, good for Wisconsin Democrats might be too good to be true. The state was ground zero for survey error in 2020, when pre-election polls proved to be too good to be true for Mr. Biden. In the end, the polls overestimated Mr. Biden by about eight percentage points. Eerily enough, Mr. Barnes is faring better than expected by a similar margin,” he wrote.

Cohn added that Wisconsin was just one example of the familiar polling patterns. 

“The more the polls overestimated Mr. Biden last time, the better Democrats seem to be doing relative to expectations. And conversely, Democrats are posting less impressive numbers in some of the states where the polls were fairly accurate two years ago, like Georgia,” Cohn wrote. 

Cohn wrote that it was possible that Democratic leads in Wisconsin and similar states are a “mirage” and possibly “an artifact of persistent and unaddressed biases in survey research.”

Voters fill out ballots in voting booths in the New York City election at a polling location in the Manhattan borough of New York, U.S., November 2, 2021. REUTERS/Mike Segar
(REUTERS/Mike Segar)

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A July Suffolk University/USA Today poll showed Democrats ahead of Republicans by 4% on the generic congressional ballot. A Wall Street Journal national poll found that 47% of respondents would vote for a Democrat if the election was held today compared to 44% who would vote Republican. The FiveThirtyEight polling average as of Monday has Democrats up a point on a generic ballot.

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After the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade in June, Democrats have made abortion the centerpiece of their midterm messaging. 

‘Vote Here’ sign is seen at a precinct the day before Michigan Democrats and Republicans choose their nominees to contest November’s congressional elections, which will determine which party controls U.S. House of Representatives for next two years, in Birmingham, Michigan, U.S. August 1, 2022. REUTERS/Emily Elconin
(REUTERS/Emily Elconin)

A Wall Street Journal poll found that support for legal abortion increased after the Supreme Court’s ruling in the Dobbs case.