Who will control the Senate in 2022? Four states to watch.
The days of an evenly split Senate may be no more after the midterm elections, with Democrats and Republicans each striving to pick up just one more seat to break the tie.
The Senate map suggests that 2022 could be a tough year for Republicans. They must defend 21 of the 35 seats up this November. Two of those races are in states President Donald Trump lost in 2020: Wisconsin, where Sen. Ron Johnson is vulnerable to a Democratic challenge, and Pennsylvania, where the retirement of Sen. Patrick J. Toomey (R) leaves a wide-open race. Democrats, meanwhile, only have 14 incumbents to defend, all in states that President Biden won.
But concerns about inflation and Biden’s dwindling job approval ratings have buoyed Republicans into believing they can win in some states that otherwise would lean the Democrats’ way. And for that reason, there is unanimous agreement from strategists in both parties that the balance of the Senate could be determined in four states where Democratic incumbents are up for reelection: Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and New Hampshire.
Two seats up
for election
Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.
Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
Two seats up
for election
Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.
Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
Two seats up
for election
36 Dems. not up for election
29 Reps. not up for election
Any losses or gains in seats may alter the narrow Democratic majority in the Senate.
Source: The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter
Georgia
An especially competitive race is shaping up in Georgia, where Sen. Raphael G. Warnock (D) will face former University of Georgia and National Football League running back Herschel Walker, the Republican nominee. Warnock never truly stopped campaigning after surprisingly winning in a runoff election in January 2021, fundraising aggressively to build a staggering $25.6 million cash on hand by the end of March. Walker has high name recognition but is untested as a candidate and faces allegations of domestic abuse. Polls show the two men tied in hypothetical matchups.
Arizona
Arizona is in the spotlight once again as Sen. Mark Kelly (D) hopes to win his first full term in the Senate. Kelly has relatively high job approval and has built his own campaign operation that many credit for helping Biden carry the state in 2020. But the race remains competitive, even after Republicans failed to recruit relatively popular Gov. Doug Ducey to run. With voters giving Democrats low marks on the economy and immigration, two defining issues for Arizonans, whomever Republicans nominate from a deep field of hopefuls is sure to pose a strong challenge to Kelly.
New Hampshire
Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu decided not to challenge Sen. Maggie Hassan (D). Republicans saw Sununu, a moderate who is popular with the state’s voters, as the ideal candidate to flip the seat. Hassan won by just over 1,000 votes in 2016 — and in a year that so far is trending in Republicans’ favor, she will be vulnerable November.
Nevada
Of the four competitive races with Democratic incumbents, Republicans are the most bullish about Nevada. The GOP has been hammering Democrats for prolonging coronavirus restrictions that hurt Las Vegas’s tourism-based economy. Nevada also has a growing number of Latino and Asian voters, two groups that have shown more openness toward Republican candidates than other minority groups.
Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto (D) has more money on hand than her likely Republican opponent, former state attorney general Adam Laxalt, who benefits from Trump’s endorsement. To gain Trump’s backing, Laxalt has repeated the former president’s false claim that the 2020 election was rigged and campaigns on fighting election fraud, which could turn off more moderate voters.
Wisconsin
The most vulnerable Republican incumbent is Johnson, whose job approval ratings are lower than Biden’s. Democrats express considerable confidence that they could unseat Johnson and charge that he has prioritized Trump over his own constituents. However, Johnson has proved that he can prevail in tough races, winning reelection in 2016 by nearly 100,000 votes after some had counted him out.
Pennsylvania
In Pennsylvania, a state that has quickly become a battleground over the years, Toomey’s retirement has created an open race. Democrats are banking on a Trump-aligned Republican nominee to turn off independent voters in the state. Trump endorsed television host Mehmet Oz over former hedge manager David McCormick in the Republican primary. The two candidates spent millions and sought to win over Trump’s voters. The hard-fought May 17 primary was too close to call, with Oz holding onto a razor-thin lead as thousands of mail-in ballots were still to be counted. Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, who has a strong following with working-class voters.
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