Ohio’s wealth primary: Ad spending nears $50 million in the GOP Senate race

CLEVELAND, Ohio — Ohio Republicans and political action committees have spent nearly $50 million this election cycle blanketing the airwaves with advertising.

As of Thursday, the candidates in the crowded GOP field to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman and interested political action committees have spent just shy of $47.5 million, according to figures provided by Columbus advertising analytics and consulting firm Medium Buying. That figure is almost guaranteed to grow to the $50 million to $60 million range by the end of the May 3 primary and ending up as one of the costliest in the nation.

That may mean the Senate contest could easily be on pace to break the previous record for ad spending in a race set in 2016 at around $80 million given the massive influx of personal money and independent expenditures already prevalent on the Republican side. The general election is expected to be one of the most hotly contested in the county as one of the few pickup opportunities for Democrats facing a rocky midterm environment.

Perhaps unsurprisingly, the $30 million in candidate spending in Ohio this cycle is carried by Cleveland investment banker Mike Gibbons, who has thrown more than $16 million of his own fortune into his campaign. Gibbons has spent $11.3 million on advertising, dwarfing the rest of the field.

Still, state Sen. Matt Dolan, a Chagrin Falls Republican whose family owns the Cleveland Guardians, has also put up more than $6.5 million on advertising from his personal coffers. Former Treasurer Josh Mandel and former Ohio Republican Party Chairman Jane Timken have each logged more than $4 million apiece while Cleveland businessman Bernie Moreno, who dropped out of the race in February, spent nearly $2.5 million before his exit.

Of the top candidates, author and venture capitalist J.D. Vance has ponied up the smallest amount at just over $1 million from his campaign.

All of the candidates, save for Mandel, has funded their campaign with at least a six-figure sum. The nearly $36 million in personal financing in the race is more than any other high-profile Republican primary in the country, with Pennsylvania’s following Ohio at around $24 million, according to Federal Elections Commission reports.

Gibbons’ more than $16.8 million accounts for around 47% of that total. As of the April FEC quarterly reporting deadline, Gibbons had used more personal money than any other Republican Senate candidate in Ohio, Pennsylvania, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Arizona, Nevada or New Hampshire.

Dolan’s nearly $10.5 million was good for another 29% of the Ohio total and was more than all but 3 candidates in those same states.

Moreno, who used a total of $3.75 million in personal money before leaving the race, and Timken, who has put in $3.5 million, are the majority of the rest. Vance has fronted $700,000 of his own money.

The influx of personal money has had varying levels of success. Gibbons, a mostly unknown private businessman before entering the race, found himself in the upper echelon of candidates following his sustained massive ad spend. Dolan has had far less success catching on.

Nick Everhart, founder of Medium Buying, said he thinks that trend of self-funding will continue.

“If somebody wants to serve in a high-profile office like U.S. Senate and Governor, and they have the liquidity to fund it, particularly to get a nomination in the primary, it’s going to become more and more common in Ohio to see self-funders run and spend moving forward,” Everhart said.

The candidates’ individual spends have outpaced independent expenditures, often a rarity in Senate contests. Mandel has been the biggest beneficiary with more than $6 million in spending on his behalf. Vance has relied on more than $4 million in spending from Silicon Valley tech executive Peter Thiel’s $10 million to Protect Ohio Values. Following former President Donald Trump’s endorsement of Vance, Thiel put another $3.5 million into the PAC, according to Politico.

The question now heading into the May 3 election is what will win out: the sustained spending strategy by the candidates or the late-breaking news of Trump’s endorsement. Trump has massive influence over Ohio Republicans and is coming to the state Saturday to campaign for Vance and candidates in a handful of congressional races.

“The data I’ve seen post the Trump endorsement, I’m still seeing Mandel maintain a lead and I think he has the highest basement; Vance has a few bodies to climb over to catch him with not much time to do it,” Everhart said.

As of Thursday, the Republican Senate primary in Alabama had logged around $16 million in spending. In North Carolina, it was around $11.5 million. Both of those contests will be decided in May.

If there is one race that is likely to surpass Ohio in terms of ad spending, it is Pennsylvania. That contest features national television host Mehmet Oz, businessman David McCormick former Ambassador to Denmark Carla Sands, real estate developer Jeff Bartos and attorney George Bochetto who have combined to put nearly $24 million of their own money into the race.

As of Thursday, ad spending in the Pennsylvania race stood at just more than $39 million, which will undoubtedly swell over the ensuing month before the May 17 primary.