Franklin County population drops a little in recent census estimate
Franklin County’s population dipped slightly from 2020 to 2021, according to census estimates released Thursday, with the loss attributed to people leaving for other places in Greater Columbus, in Ohio and the nation.
The pattern of net population loss was similar in Ohio’s other urban counties, according to the census estimates. Cuyahoga (Cleveland), Hamilton (Cincinnati), Lucas (Toledo), Montgomery (Dayton), Summit (Akron), Stark (Canton) and Mahoning (Youngstown) all experienced slight population drops over the year.
Meanwhile, the six counties surrounding Franklin County — Delaware, Fairfield, Licking, Madison, Pickaway, and Union — all saw slight population gains during that July 1, 2020 to July 1, 2021 time period, according to the estimates.
According to the estimates, Franklin County’s population dropped by 2,689 people, from an estimated 1,324,103 on July 1, 2020 to 1,321,414 on July 1, 2021.
Franklin County’s official 2020 census count as of April 1, 2020, was 1,323,807.
“This is the first time I’ve seen Franklin County losing population,” said Michael Wilkos, senior vice president of community impact for the United Way of Central Ohio, who regularly studies demographic and population trends.
COVID pandemic had impact on population estimates
But Wilkos believes the county’s slight population decline is an anomaly, brought about by the COVID-19 pandemic. As of Thursday, there have been 37,793 COVID-related deaths across Ohio, including 2,541 in Franklin County.
Meanwhile, the counties outside Franklin have gained, in part because people chose to move to lower-density communities during the pandemic, Wilkos said. “Columbus was caught up in that national wave,” he said.
The U.S. Census Bureau said that almost three-quarters of U.S. counties had more deaths than births over that period, driven mostly by the COVID-19 pandemic. In 2019, just more than 45% of all counties saw more deaths than births.
“We’re seeing some of the full effects of what the pandemic has done,” Wilkos said.
“Everything is in flux. It’s clearly a slow growth year for the entire U.S,” he said.
In a news release, the census bureau reported that fewer births, an aging population and increased mortality that was driven by the pandemic contributed to a rise in the natural decrease in 2021.
That wasn’t the case in Franklin County, where births (17,346) outnumbered deaths (12,442).
But Franklin County lost 9,799 in net domestic migration.
In all of Ohio’s urban counties except Franklin and Hamilton, deaths outnumbered births during that time. Hamilton County had 627 more births than deaths (10,318 to 9,691).
According to the estimates, Ohio lost a little more than 10,000 residents statewide over that one-year period, bringing the state’s estimated population to 11,780,017 in mid-2021. Deaths statewide outnumbered births 144,406 to 128,595.
Wilkos pointed out that 18 states lost population last year.
“This is unprecedented for the United States and provides an incredible insight to how much COVID impacted our nation,” he said.
But Wilkos said he saw a few positive trends in Ohio. For example, even though Stark County lost population because deaths outnumbered births, it gained a net of 703 people through migration.
Clark County, home to Springfield, did the same, with a net migration gain of 376. And Montgomery County (Dayton) had a net migration gain of 223. All small numbers, but important for counties where populations have stagnated.
As for other counties, Muskingum (home to Zanesville) gained 66 to go to 86,408 in 20201, Guernsey (Cambridge), lost 103 to go to 38,287, Marion County was down 72 to go to 65,291, Ross County (Chillicothe) was down 94 to 76,891, Ashland County was down 104 to go to 52,316, and Wayne County (Wooster) was down 130 to go to 116,710.
International arrivals, remote college learning factors in population changes
Columbus continues to be a magnet for international in-migration despite the problems COVID caused, Mikos said. Franklin County added 2,166 international residents in the past year while Cuyahoga, Hamilton, Montgomery, Summit, Lucas, Stark and Mahoning combined added 2,804 combined.
Edward “Ned” Hill, an economics professor at Ohio State University, said he wasn’t surprised that Franklin County slipped a little in population because some college students who were counted as residents before COVID didn’t come back to live at or around universities, but instead used remote learning during that census estimate period.
“They were in front of a screen, not in front of a classroom,” Hill said.
Hill said the growth in counties surrounding Franklin could also be attributed to young adults moving back in with families, as well as upper-income people building homes in those counties.
People leaving coasts for more space
Nationwide, Los Angeles County, California, had the greatest net domestic migration loss in the country (179,757), followed by New York County (Manhattan), New York (113,642), Wilkos said.
Meanwhile, coastal metro area such as New York and San Francisco had substantial losses of 327,000 and 116,400, respectively.
“As many people had expected, many people left the large dense metros on the coasts and sought locations with a bit more room,” Wilkos said. That benefitted metros such as Indianapolis, Charlotte, Atlanta, Dallas, Houston, and Columbus, he said.
Five of the top 10 gaining counties in 2021 were in Texas: Collin (suburban Dallas), Fort Bend (suburban Houston), Williamson (suburban Austin), Denton (outside Dallas and Fort Worth) and Montgomery (north of Houston).
Hill said demographers see more people moving out of California in the future toward lower-cost states, such as Texas.
@MarkFerenchik
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