Bolstered by millions in self-funded ads, Mike Gibbons is settling into the top tier of

COLUMBUS — While he didn’t enter the race with the highest profile, Cleveland-area businessman Mike Gibbons is showing signs of emerging as a top-tier candidate in Ohio’s Republican U.S. Senate primary.

Gibbons, an investment banker from the Cleveland area, has led in several recent polls of Ohio Republican primary voters, internal and otherwise, including a March 1 poll commissioned by Protect Ohio Values, a Super PAC affiliated with JD Vance, another Republican U.S. Senate candidate. In doing so, he overtook former state treasurer Josh Mandel, who’s generally led during the earlier phase of the contest, when many voters aren’t paying close attention.

Beyond the polls, which have a particularly questionable recent track record in Ohio, actions from other Republican U.S. Senate candidates show that they are starting to view Gibbons as a credible threat. Gibbons has been targeted in two recent attack ads – one from Jane Timken, a former chairman of the Ohio Republican Party, and another from Protect Ohio Values that launched on Monday.

Besides his recent strength in polls, Gibbons also recently hired as an adviser Bill Stepien, who managed former President Donald Trump’s 2020 re-election campaign, which could give Gibbons additional clout in the parallel primary race to try to get Trump’s coveted endorsement.

Ohio political observers said Gibbons’ surprisingly strong performance shows how fluid the Republican race is to succeed retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman. Polls have shown Gibbons, Timken, Vance, Mandel and state Sen. Matt Dolan as all within plausible striking distance of winning, with a major share of voters undecided.

Most of the candidates are at last partially self-funding, making Ohio’s Republican Senate primary among America’s costliest elections. The election is scheduled for May 3, with early voting starting in April, although the date could change due to ongoing redistricting litigation.

Terry Casey, a Republican strategist in Columbus, said of Gibbons: “He’s leading for three reasons. Money, money, money.”

Nick Everhart, another Republican consultant in Columbus said: “This race is still so wide open and volatile, IF Mike Gibbons is the front-runner today, it means nothing, as we’re still so far out from a primary election day. a day mind you we don’t even know yet.”

Gibbons, a longtime Republican donor whose extensive assets include major real-estate holdings, entered electoral politics in May 2017. That’s when he decided to run for the Republican U.S. Senate nomination, against Mandel, who at the time was the frontrunner and presumptive nominee to challenge Democrat Sen. Sherrod Brown.

But Mandel unexpectedly dropped out of the race in January 2018, with just months to go until the election. Republican establishment support coalesced around then-U.S. Rep. Jim Renacci.

Renacci ended up winning the primary with 48%, to Gibbons’ 32%, after getting then-President Donald Trump’s endorsement. But Renacci went on to lose to Brown in the November, in a general election in which Ohio Republicans won every other non-judicial statewide race.

After his loss, Gibbons remained politically involved, running a Super PAC, which he then quit to run for Senate in February 2022.

Eschewing the political strategic norm of holding back major ad spending until closer to the election, when voters are paying closer attention, Gibbons has been carpet-bombing the airwaves with political ads since last summer. He announced plans last July to spend $10 million in ads through election day.

He and his allies have spent $6.9 million on ads so far, the most in the Republican field, according to Medium Buying, a Columbus political-ad firm. Second is Mandel, who’s either directly spent or benefitted from outside money totaling $3.6 million.

Gibbons also has raised $12.1 million, the most of any candidate in the race, although all but $756,000 of that is from his own personal wealth.

Between the lack of outside donations and the big early spending, it was easy to peg Gibbons as a wealthy candidate with a persuasive consulting team. But the polling suggests that at least for now, the investment is paying off.

“Our campaign invested early in both advertising and building a grassroots network across Ohio that defined Mike Gibbons as a conservative outsider who would take on the Washington establishment. With less than two months until the primary, it is clear Mike Gibbons’ message is resonating with voters,” said Sam Cotten, a Gibbons campaign spokeswoman.

In his ads, Gibbons has promoted himself as a conservative businessman and political outsider, focusing on the red-meat topic of illegal immigration, with a unifying theme referencing his past high-school and college football career at St. Ignatius and Kenyon College.

He’s also funded attacks against his opponents, going after Vance and Timken in an ad two weeks ago, calling them “Washington wimps.”

The most recent ads from Timken and Protect Ohio Values, the pro-Vance Super PAC, pull their punches when attacking Gibbons, showing his face alongside other candidates in the field while not mentioning him by name.

“If people don’t recognize him after all the millions he’s spent, he’s got bigger problems,” said Luke Thompson, executive director of Protect Ohio Values.

Likely aiding his rise, Gibbons has yet to be the subject of dedicated political attack ads, leaving his image unchecked with casual voters. And since he’s never held elected office, he has no political record to scrutinize. But possibly presenting fodder to his opponents is his extensive investing career, in which he’s discussed investing in foreign markets like China and Mexico.

Casey, the Republican political consultant in Columbus, said it’s unclear if Gibbons’ support will last when and if other candidates pay him greater negative attention.

“Durability is a big question,” Casey said. “Because we really haven’t had a close examination of all the candidates, and other candidates are holding back on their spending.”