Tom Brady retires: A look at the economic ramifications for the Buccaneers and

Tom Brady raised eyebrows several years ago when initially stating he wanted to play football at least until he’s 45 because the idea seemed far-fetched. The 44-year old quarterback was noncommittal about playing a 23rd NFL season following the Buccaneers‘ 30-27 loss to the Rams in the divisional playoff round, but officially announced his retirement on Tuesday morning.

Father Time didn’t appear to be catching up with Brady. He had an MVP caliber season. Brady threw for a league leading (and a career high) 5,316 yards and 43 touchdown passes. His 67.5 completion percentage is the second best mark in his career.

Brady was under contract through the 2022 season. He freed up $19.3 million of 2021 salary cap room last March with a one-year, $27,941,176 contract extension, which helped the Buccaneers “keep the band together” to try to repeat as Super Bowl champions.

The extension included three voiding/dummy contract years (2023 through 2025) so his fully guaranteed $20 million fifth day of the 2021 league year roster bonus and $20 million signing bonus could be prorated over five years (through 2025) instead of over just two years (through 2022).

Brady was scheduled to make $10,395,588 in 2022 on a $20,270,588 cap number. The $10,395,588 consists of an injury guaranteed $8.925 million base salary that becomes fully guaranteed on the fifth day of the 2022 league year waiver period (Feb. 18) and a $1,470,588 17th regular season game roster bonus.

What Brady’s retirement means for Bucs

The Buccaneers will have $32 million of dead money, which is a salary cap charge for a player no longer on a team’s roster, with Brady retiring before June 2. That’s almost $11.8 million more than Brady’s 2022 cap number. Retirement would void the $8.925 million salary guarantee.

The Buccaneers aren’t really in a position to handle an increased 2022 cap obligation relating to Brady. There are currently $189.992 million in 2022 cap commitments with 46 players under contract and a little more than $1.425 million of cap space being carried over to the 2022 league year according to NFLPA data. Only the top 51 salaries (i.e.; cap numbers) matter with offseason salary cap accounting rules. The 2022 salary cap is expected to be at the $208.2 million ceiling the NFL and NFLPA agreed to last May. Once there are 51 players counting, Tampa Bay is projected to be $15.5 million under this ceiling.

This increase could be avoided with waiting to process a Brady retirement by carrying him on the roster until at least June 2. By doing so, the $24 million of bonus proration associated with the dummy or fake 2023 through 2025 contract years would be a 2023 salary cap charge rather than part of the 2022 dead money, which would be $8 million. The Buccaneers would pick up $12,270,588 of 2022 cap room with Brady’s 2022 salary and $1.875 million of incentives deemed likely to be earned that have a cap charge coming off the books.

Craving even more NFL coverage focusing on previews, recaps, news and analysis? Listen below and follow the Pick Six podcast for a daily dose of everything you need to follow pro football. 

The Panthers did this with 2010s All-Decade team linebacker Luke Kuechly when he retired two years ago, so the remaining bonus proration in his contract would count on the cap in 2020 and 2021 instead of just in 2020. Leaving the contract intact with Brady continuing to take up one of the 90 offseason roster spots would be the easiest way to preserve the option for him to have a change of heart about playing next season, like Hall of Fame quarterback Brett Favre did in 2008, if he had already announced his retirement.

A sign of Brady not considering a return would be the Buccaneers taking a page out the Saints‘ book with quarterback Drew Brees’ retirement last year. Prior to Brees announcing his retirement last March, he and the Saints agreed to reduce his $25 million 2021 base salary to $1.075 million, his 2021 league minimum salary, so $23.925 million of much needed cap relief could be gained instantly. Brees was carried on the Saints’ roster until June 11 to prevent the $11.5 million in bonus proration relating to his voiding 2022 and 2023 contract years from becoming a 2021 cap charge. This $11.5 million is 2022 dead money.

It would entail Brady dropping his 2022 base salary to his $1.12 million league minimum while eliminating his nearly $1.5 million roster bonus and $1.875 million of incentives qualifying as likely to be earned. Tampa Bay would get $11,150,588 of immediate cap relief. Once Brady was placed on the reserve/retired list after June 1, an additional $1.12 million of cap room would be generated from the removal of his base salary.

Would Tampa Bay give Brady a $16M parting gift?

The unanswered question would be whether the Buccaneers would forego extra cap savings by giving Brady a $16 million parting gift. When a…