Ohio State, LSU plummet while USC rises in latest top 25 projection

25. Purdue Boilermakers (8-4)

24. Mississippi State Bulldogs (8-4)

23. North Carolina Tar Heels (9-3)

22. UCF Knights (9-3)

21. Texas Longhorns (8-4)

20. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (8-4)

There’s a chance Notre Dame drops a couple spots as the nation’s highest-ranked four-loss team following its loss at USC and another four-loss team’s rise during rivalry week. At any rate, Notre Dame and Texas should be near each other in the selection committee’s penultimate rankings this week. … Expect Purdue, and not UTSA or Ole Miss, to crack the top 25 ahead of the Big Ten Championship Game matchup with Michigan. … North Carolina, who plays Clemson this weekend in the ACC finale, will fall following its loss to NC State.

South Carolina is one of only two teams nationally with two wins over teams currently ranked inside the top 10 of the playoff rankings after victories over Tennessee and Clemson in consecutive weeks. Can you guess the other? Hint: They’re from the Big Ten. Something has clicked for this Gamecocks team during a 3-1 November that has established a wave of momentum the program hasn’t seen in nearly a decade. Shane Beamer’s group awaits their bowl destination as potential the nation’s highest-ranked four-loss team.

UCLA rebounded from its loss to USC with a victory over California to end the campaign with nine wins under coach Chip Kelly. Considering his future with the Bruins was cloudy at best coming into the 2022 campaign, what Kelly was able to do with a veteran group on offense was notable. UCLA is one of six teams we’re expecting to be inside Tuesday night’s top 20. The Bruins had to cancel their bowl plans last December, so next month’s trip will be welcomed for the players.

It all comes down to this for potential outgoing coach Willie Fritz and the Green Wave, who are a conference championship game win away from getting to the Cotton Bowl as the Group of Five champion this season. Fritz is reportedly close to becoming Georgia Tech’s next head coach, which could be somewhat of a distraction for the Green Wave heading into their most important game of the season. With a win over UCF, Tulane will play in the Cotton Bowl.

What happened to Oregon late in the season? Two questionable fourth-down decisions were direct reasons why the Ducks lost to Washington and Oregon State to squander an opportunity to play in the Pac-12 Championship Game and now first-year coach Dan Lanning has lost his best assistant, Kenny Dillingham, to Arizona State’s head-coaching vacancy. November was a month to forget for the Ducks, who had playoff aspirations heading into the final stretch.

You could certainly make a strong argument that the Pac-12 is college football’s most competitive league this season. Oregon State is going to be one of possibly five teams inside the top 15 of this week’s selection committee rankings following the Beavers’ 21-point comeback win over Oregon. Oregon State trailed 31-10 late in the third quarter prior to a furious rally that ultimately pushed Utah into the Pac-12 title game against USC. Oregon State’s bowl placement was likely strengthened with the victory.

Mike Norvell is the frontrunner to win the ACC’s top coach honor after a job well done this season, culminating with Friday night’s win over Florida to cap a nine-win campaign. It was the Seminoles’ first win over the Gators in four tries and a included a spirited effort in the second half from a team that won five straight to end the season. Florida State will be rewarded with one of the league’s top-tier bowl invites and should enjoy a nearby destination in the Sunshine State.

Kansas State, even with four losses should the Wildcats lose to TCU this weekend, will play in a New Year’s Six game as the Big 12’s highest-ranked finisher behind the Horned Frogs. Deuce Vaughn and the Wildcats will try and get their revenge against TCU for a previous loss, but all simulation models and projections point to the Horned Frogs being a virtual lock to reach the final four, even with a setback on Saturday.

We expect LSU to fall potentially half-a-dozen spots following its whiff at Texas A&M. Tigers coach Brian Kelly had no explanation for his team’s performance other than execution issues affecting the SEC West champs for the duration of the game. Texas A&M picked the wrong time to play its best football of the season in LSU’s case, which now would likely not make the final four even with a win over top-ranked Georgia this weekend in Atlanta. Three losses is too many for this team to be considered one of the best four.

Consistency is key and Utah’s drive in November kept the Utes in contention for a berth in the Pac-12 Championship Game. With Oregon’s loss at Oregon State coupled with Washington’s win in the Apple Cup, the Utes now have an opportunity to defend their throne against USC. Utah would likely keep the Pac-12 out of the playoff with a win, too. A victory puts Utah back in the Rose Bowl for a second consecutive year against Ohio State and storylines would revolve around redemption in that one.

Clemson was eliminated from playoff contention with Saturday’s mistake-filled loss to South Carolina, a game in which the Tigers held a 14-point lead and three nine-point leads before succumbing to their rival and seeing their 40-game home winning streak snapped. Dabo Swinney rode with quarterback D.J. Uiagalelei too long this season it appears and it came back to haunt the Tigers against a quality opponent playing its best football down the stretch. Clemson plays UNC this weekend in the ACC Championship Game.

As long as Utah doesn’t beat USC in the Pac-12 title game, Washington has essentially clinched a berth in the Rose Bowl as the league’s second-best team following its weekend win over Washington State. What Kalen DeBoer has accomplished in his first season with the Huskies is nothing short of remarkable and this is one of the nation’s hottest teams entering bowl season. In an expanded playoff, Washington would be a tough out and an opponent no higher seed would want to play right now.