Thanksgiving sports ratings predictions – Sports Media Watch

One of the biggest holiday weekends in recent sports history features three historic rivalries laden with playoff (or knockout) implications — Giants-Cowboys, Michigan-Ohio State and the oldest of them all, United States-England, all on the same network. Just how big will the viewership get?

Expect across-the-board gains for the NFL Thanksgiving games

It is the rare occasion when one can confidently predict an audience in excess of 40 million viewers, but the Cowboys Thanksgiving Day game figures to join the AFC and NFC Championships and Super Bowl in that rarefied company. Out-of-home viewing has not only lifted the NFL, it has turbocharged holiday audiences such that 40 million may well be the floor of what one can expect for the marquee dinnertime window. Last year, Raiders-Cowboys averaged 40.8 million viewers in that slot — the highest ever for a Thanksgiving game and the first NFL regular season game since 1990 to exceed the 40 million mark.

This year’s game figures to do even better given the matchup. The Giants-Cowboys rivalry was once the NFL’s answer to Yankees-Red Sox, a pairing guaranteed to move the needle. Then New York fell on hard times. The fact that these teams are meeting on Thanksgiving is in fact an indication that the rivalry has not been as big a draw as in the past (Thanksgiving is such a sure thing in the ratings the NFL typically does not schedule it’s top-tier matchups on the holiday). Out of the blue this season, Big Blue has returned to relevance — its 7-3 record tying them for second in a surprisingly strong NFC East. It just so happens they are tied with the Cowboys, making Thursday’s game the most important matchup of the teams in years.

Given the markets involved, the rivalry, the stakes and the timeslot, expect this game to easily clear the 40 million mark — and likely surpass Giants-49ers in 1990 (41.6M) as the NFL’s most-watched regular game in decades.

NFL: Giants-Cowboys (4:30p Thu FOX). Prediction: 42.3 million viewers.

As for the other Thanksgiving Day games, the Buffalo Bills have a national following that far outpaces their market size. With the Lions at a not-that-bad 4-6 this season, the early Thanksgiving window has a good shot at an increase and multi-year high. Last year’s early game had 28.2 million viewers, the highest in the slot since 2014 (29.4M).

NFL: Bills-Lions (12:30p Thu CBS). Prediction: 28.5 million viewers.

The primetime game has long been a Thanksgiving afterthought, at least as compared to the afternoon windows. Last year, 20 million fewer viewers watched the Thanksgiving nightcap than the preceding Cowboys game. Patriots-Vikings is a better matchup than NBC typically gets on Thanksgiving night — even after Minnesota got shown up by Dallas last weekend — but do not expect anything different this time around. On the bright side, the bar for success is a bit lower and even 22 million would be the highest in the window since 2014.

NFL: Patriots-Vikings (8:20p Thu NBC). Prediction: 21.9 million viewers.

Will USMNT-England score an all-time record audience?

A winter World Cup was nobody’s preference, certainly not FOX — which was so displeased with the arrangement that FIFA awarded it an extra World Cup in 2026 without putting the rights to market. Nevertheless, the network is making the best of things, playing up the late date with an advertising campaign featuring Jon Hamm as Santa Claus and the somewhat-tortured slogan “Tis’ the World Cup,” and taking advantage of some unique scheduling opportunities — such as having the USMNT play on Thanksgiving weekend, a potential ratings bonanza.

To be sure, Black Friday is not the same as Thanksgiving Day, a reason why college football schedules lackluster games for the date and leaves its best rivalries for Saturday. It is traditionally a major shopping day, the kind of activity that draws people away from their televisions. Thus, it is relatively untapped space for a reason. Having said that, the opportunity is there for communal viewing with the right matchup.

The USMNT-England rivalry heralded the arrival of soccer as a major U.S. television draw 12 years ago, when their meeting in the group stage of the 2010 World Cup delivered 13 million viewers on ABC — at the time an unheard-of number for an early round matchup. That game aired on a Sunday afternoon in June with little competition.

There has been talk that this year’s game could set a viewership record, but that will be a tough task. The most-watched soccer match ever on U.S. television was the USWNT-Japan final in the 2015 Women’s World Cup (26.7M), followed by the 2014 Germany-Argentina men’s final (26.5M) and then the USMNT-Portugal group play match in 2014 (24.7M). Looking just at single-network highs, the 2015 final ranks first (25.4M on FOX), followed by USMNT-Portugal (18.2M on ESPN). In the past two years, those kinds of numbers have been simply out-of-reach for anything outside of NFL games and college football’s national championship.

The first USMNT match in this World Cup averaged around 12 million viewers in a Monday afternoon slot without aid of any holiday viewing (8.3M on FOX and 3.4M on Telemundo and Peacock). The question is how much of a lift Black Friday will provide.

FIFA World Cup group play: USMNT-England (2p Fri FOX). Prediction: 14.0M on FOX, 4.8M on Telemundo/Peacock, 18.8M combined.

Can Michigan-Ohio State viewership catch 2016 — or 2006?

After Giants-Cowboys on Thursday and USMNT-England on Friday, FOX caps arguably its greatest-ever three-day stretch with #3 Michigan-#2 Ohio State on Saturday. “The Game” is never bigger than when both teams are in the top five. Six years ago, their #2 vs #3 meeting averaged just shy of 17 million viewers — still the largest audience for any college football game (excluding bowls and conference championships) since 2011. Sixteen years ago, their titanic #1 vs #2 matchup averaged more than 21 million, the highest since 1993. Both of those games preceded the out-of-home era. An increase over 2016 seems virtually assured, as even last year’s game had nearly as large an audience. Is 2006 in reach?

This year’s meeting marks the first time the rivals have met while undefeated since 2006 (both were one-loss teams in 2016). Nonetheless, do not expect a repeat of that year’s viewership. Back then, there was no conference championship game and only two teams played for the national championship — giving the game stakes that simply cannot be replicated today. (Also forgotten is that the 2006 game aired in a later 3:30 PM ET window.)

Will Michigan-Ohio State outdraw USMNT-England? The likeliest answer is ‘yes and no.’ It will probably be a bigger draw on FOX, but it would not be surprising if the soccer match had more viewers overall.

CFB: #3 Michigan-#2 Ohio State (Noon Sat FOX). Prediction: 19.4M viewers.

Once, Notre Dame-USC was one of college football’s most-watched games. The Trojans’ decline put a stop to that. Now that USC is back in contention, look for this game to reclaim its place as one of the sport’s top draws. Their previous Thanksgiving weekend meeting — four years ago — averaged 7.7 million viewers. Given the stakes (and out-of-home viewing) expect bigger numbers this time.

CFB: #15 Notre Dame-#6 USC (7:30p Sat ABC). Prediction: 10.01M viewers.

Even on the outside looking in of the playoff race, Alabama remains college football’s biggest draw. The Tide have played in five of the nine most-watched games this season, more than any other team — including a matchup against Mississippi two weeks ago after their playoff hopes had already been (largely) extinguished. The Iron Bowl will of course pale in comparison to Michigan-Ohio State and probably Notre Dame-USC, but expect a top-ten audience of the season nonetheless.

CFB: Auburn-#7 Alabama (3:30p Sat CBS). Prediction: 9.02M viewers.

A direct lead-in from the USMNT-England match should lift UCLA-Cal to an unusually large audience Friday afternoon. No Pac-12 conference game — excluding the championship — has cracked the five million viewer mark since 2014 (USC-Stanford: 6.54M). With a big lead-in and not much competition, could that number be in play? In the same window last year, Colorado-Utah had fewer than two million.

CFB: #18 UCLA-Cal (3:30p Fri FOX). Prediction: 4.04M.

Previous predictions

— World Series Game 6: Phillies-Astros. Prediction: 6.8, 13.31M; result: 6.1, 12.55M.
— NFL Sunday Night Football: Titans-Chiefs. Prediction: 9.8, 18.98M; result: 9.7, 17.69M.
— NFL national window: Rams-Buccaneers. Prediction: 11.5, 22.59M; result: 10.6, 20.25M.
— CFB: Tennessee-Georgia. Prediction: 6.4, 11.79M; result: 6.7, 13.06M.
— CFB: Alabama-LSU. Prediction: 3.2, 5.36M; result: 3.9, 7.58M.
— NASCAR Cup Series finale: Phoenix. Prediction: 3.03M; result: 3.21M.
— MLS Cup: Philadelphia-LAFC. Prediction: 975K (FOX), 1.29M (overall); result: 1.49M (FOX), 2.16M (overall).