How College Football Playoff rankings affect Rivalry Week

A two-loss team has never made the College Football Playoff, but at No. 5 this week, LSU (9-2) inched one step closer to making history.

In the most notable decision from an otherwise predictable top six, the CFP selection committee deemed the Tigers a notch above one-loss USC, which is coming off its best win of the season, a 48-45 road victory against No. 18 UCLA. The Trojans also have a CFP Top 25 win against No. 21 Oregon State, but the committee bumped LSU up one spot after Tennessee lost 63-38 to still-unranked South Carolina and dropped from No. 5 to No. 10.

That same Tennessee team beat LSU 40-13 in Baton Rouge.

LSU, though, has wins against No. 7 Alabama and No. 20 Ole Miss, and the 32-31 overtime victory against the Tide on Nov. 5 is clearly carrying weight in the room, along with the fact the Tigers have clinched the SEC West and will face Georgia in the SEC championship game. With LSU on the bubble, there should be little doubt the Tigers can finish in the top four on Selection Day on Dec. 4 if they beat Texas A&M on Saturday and Georgia in the SEC championship.

“It came up over and over again to make sure, and there’s reasons for both teams, but the committee at the end of the day saw the wins over Alabama and Mississippi as stronger than the wins over UCLA and Oregon State,” selection committee chair Boo Corrigan said. “One area we still have questions on is the strength of the defense of USC, and looking at it in its entirety, we believe that LSU deserved to be ranked 5 and SC 6.”

The possibility of LSU winning the SEC should concern every other contender — especially the loser of the Ohio State-Michigan game Saturday — because it sustains the possibility of two SEC teams finishing in the top four.

Again.

Here’s what the fourth of six rankings means to the biggest rivalry games of Week 13, ranked in order of their greatest impact:

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1. Michigan at Ohio State

If Michigan wins: The Wolverines win the Big Ten East and position themselves as the Big Ten’s top playoff contender. Ohio State would need Georgia to run the table and beat LSU, eliminating the possibility of two SEC teams (it’s happened twice before: 2017 and 2021), and it would help the Buckeyes tremendously if Notre Dame beats USC and knocks out the Pac-12. Ohio State would be banking on wins against Notre Dame and Penn State to impress the selection committee to get in at the expense of a one-loss ACC champion Clemson. Ohio State has five wins over current FPI top-40 teams — by an average of 22.4 PPG.

If Ohio State wins: The Buckeyes would win the Big Ten East and emerge as the league’s top playoff contender. Michigan would need its win against No. 11 Penn State and game film to trump a Power 5 conference champion. Much like Ohio State, Michigan needs Georgia to win the SEC and eliminate LSU and the possibility of two SEC teams, and it needs USC to lose to Notre Dame and eliminate the Pac-12. Michigan’s biggest problem is its nonconference schedule (Colorado State, Hawai’i and UConn), which is the second weakest in the FBS. Right now, though, Michigan is No. 4 in ESPN’s strength of record metric, while Clemson is No. 6. If Michigan loses, it would have four wins against teams ranked currently in the top 40 of FPI (PSU, Illinois, Iowa and Maryland) and two of those four wins were by one possession.

The NEW #CFBPlayoff top 25 rankings heading into rivalry week‼️

Which matchup are you looking forward to? ? pic.twitter.com/HPRCgNRmbd

— ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) November 23, 2022

2. Notre Dame at USC

If Notre Dame wins: The Pac-12 is eliminated from the playoff because its champion would have at least two losses, and USC is already looking up at a two-loss team. A Notre Dame win would also help Ohio State’s résumé, giving the Buckeyes another small boost in case they don’t beat Michigan.

If USC wins: The Pac-12’s hopes would remain strong, and USC could jump LSU and crack the top four in the committee’s fifth ranking after the loser of Ohio State-Michigan falls out. Even if USC wins the Pac-12, though, and ends its season with three straight wins against CFP Top 25 opponents, there could still be a debate. USC needs Georgia to run the table and eliminate LSU, along with the possibility of two SEC teams in the top four. The best-case scenario for USC would be for Ohio State to win the Big Ten, because the Trojans are more likely to win a résumé battle against Michigan as runner-up. With Notre Dame as a common opponent with Ohio State, that could get tricky depending on how the game plays out. If Georgia, Ohio State and TCU are in, one-loss USC seems to have separated itself from one-loss Clemson in the committee meeting room. The question would be if the opponents in their respective conference championship games change that perception, and if the committee is bothered more by Clemson’s average offense, or USC’s porous defense.

“I think we’re…