Biden’s Ukraine leadership may not help Democrats at the ballot box
The President’s job approval rating — the most important indicator of November prospects — has been stuck in the low 40s for months. If it remains there on Election Day, Republicans stand a very strong chance of regaining control of Congress and roadblocking Biden’s agenda.
This partly reflects history’s metronomic rhythms. As Democratic predecessors Bill Clinton and Barack Obama both discovered, presidents become the focus of public discontent after taking office. In their first midterm elections, they nearly always lose ground in Congress and often see their parties tossed from control.
That’s no record. Adjusted for inflation and auto fuel-efficiency gains, Democratic economist Larry Summers told CNN last week, the burden of gas prices on consumers remains lower than 10 years ago.
More important is the dramatic shift in public attention to the war.
“There’s a lot of potential for the focus on foreign policy to scramble things up,” observed Democratic data analyst David Shor. If Biden’s job approval could reach even 45% by this fall, Shor estimated, his party will have a chance to keep control of Congress.
CNN’s average of major polls last week showed Biden at 43% approval. That’s 2 points below Shor’s minimum target, but 2 points higher than the previous average in February.
But the duration of any uptick remains unproven. So is the prospect that it will continue.
There appears to be no possibility of a dramatic surge in support of the kind that both Presidents Bush received after the first Gulf War and the 9/11 attacks. That’s due partly to increased partisan polarization, and partly to the ugly contours of a Russian invasion that the US and NATO remain determined not to engage with their own military forces.
Biden’s “stroke has gotten stronger (but) he’s still swimming against the tide,” concluded Democratic pollster Geoff Garin. There are times when presidential leadership has to be its own reward.
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