Recruiting mailbag – The Athletic

Recruiting never stops. Neither do your questions.

And if we didn’t get to your question, don’t be discouraged! We will be addressing some on “Stars Matter,” our weekly recruiting podcast, which can be found on the feed of “The Andy Staples Show.” Look for new episodes every Thursday morning.

(Note: Submitted questions have been edited for clarity and length.)

Any subtle geographic trends you’re watching right now besides the obvious? For example, I follow recruiting but didn’t learn about Kentucky’s strategy to slam Ohio until you wrote about it. — Will S.

There is a geographical trend that makes me believe there is a chance that 2023 could make for the most interesting cycle we’ve had in years. And no, it has nothing to do with Arch Manning. It has to do with the potential of a more even talent distribution among the top 100 players in the 247Sports Composite.

People want to talk about expanding the College Football Playoff to get more even recruiting results. Some people want to change rules. They want to put an end to college football’s biggest perceived problem — the disparity in recruiting results between the haves and the have nots. In the 2022 cycle, exactly 50 percent of the top 100 players signed with one of four schools (Texas A&M, Alabama, Georgia, Ohio State).

I predict that it will be lower this year. And it has to do with geography and first-year head coaches.

Look around the sport right now. Lincoln Riley is at USC. Billy Napier is at Florida. Mario Cristobal is at Miami. Brian Kelly is at LSU. Brent Venables is at Oklahoma. Steve Sarkisian is in his second season at Texas. And the big hitters like Ryan Day, Nick Saban, Kirby Smart, Jimbo Fisher and Dabo Swinney are still at their schools. Now look at the areas of the country that typically have the highest number of top-100 players.