Minnesota at Ohio State basketball preview and prediction

Minnesota is in the midst of a five games in twelve days stretch. The Gophers opened the push with a home win over Rutgers but tonight Minnesota is in Columbus facing 18th ranked Ohio State. The same Buckeyes that grabbed 20 offensive rebounds for 27 second chance points in Minneapolis for a 75-64 win just under three weeks ago. Can tonight’s game be different? We look into that now in the Gopher basketball preview and prediction.

Game Information

Tip-Off: 7:30pm CST

TV: Big Ten Network

Streaming Link: Watch

Audio Link: Listen

Radio: KFAN 100.3

Sirius: 387

Where: Value City Arena

The Storyline

Tonight will be the toughest task the Gophers face in their grueling twelve game stretch: a road game at a ranked team that the Gophers don’t match up well with. In the previous game 6’7 240 pound EJ Liddell physically dominated the Gophers. He produced 23 points on 9 of 14 shooting, 15 offensive boards highlighted by eight on the offensive end, five assists, and constant usage of his 245 pounds inside and out (he hit two threes). The front line of Liddell, 6’8 245 pound Zed Key, 6’8 230 pound Kyle Young, and 6’10 255 pound Joey Brunk was too much for the Gophers the first time. But….

We feel we are a pretty fair group here at Gopher Illustrated. And if we are being fair, it’s important to note that Minnesota was without starting center Eric Curry that game (when OSU physically dominated Minnesota). Curry plays 28 minutes a contest in the post for Minnesota and he’s surpassed his career high three times this year: twice against the very physical Michigan State Spartans and once last weekend when he had 22 points against physical PSU big John Harrar. Having Curry will certainly make a difference as he is tied for the team lead in rebounding at 6.5 a game and Eric of course has a high game IQ.

Eric shares that rebounding lead with Jamison Battle. Battle did play against the Buckeyes but remember, it was immediately following his January illness and he was not full strength. Battle started the game shooting 1 of 9 in the first half.

Ohio State is the more physical team. They will likely be the more physical team tonight. But when they physically dominated the Gophers the first time, Head Coach Ben Johnson was without his starting five and his starting four man was playing at about 50 percent health. It makes a difference. Can it make enough difference for Minnesota to actually beat Ohio State though?

Remember, when Ohio State beat Minnesota in January they were without starting point guard Jamari Wheeler. It was the only game Wheeler has missed this season. Jamari plays 30 minutes a night and leads the team in assists. He’s also one of the better three point shooters on the team (37.5 percent) although he only takes 2-3 a game. Meechie Johnson started at point for OSU in Williams Arena but Johnson has been dealing with injuries all season. He’s had a facial bone fracture, a concussion, and recently suffered an ankle injury against Rutgers (two games ago). Johnson didn’t play at Michigan three days ago.

The Numbers

It wasn’t just Liddell that crushed the Gophers on the offensive glass. Malaki Branham ran by Gopher wings for four offensive boards highlighting his 11 points and six rebounds. Buckeye big Zed Key had a dozen points and eight boards (three offensive) in 20 minutes time. Kyle Young came off the bench playing half the game and scored 14 points collecting multiple offensive boards himself. The 20 offensive rebounds for 27 second chance points was a complete OSU team effort.

Battle wasn’t the only player that was coming off a bad illness (potentially Covid), the first game EJ Stephens played after sitting out a week was against OSU as well. Stephens had been red hot scoring 52 points in the previous three games (previous to the Ohio State game) including 15 of 27 shooting combined against Iowa and Michigan State. He then completed only four of five shots against the Buckeyes. Luke Loewe and Payton Willis outplayed the OSU backcourt in that previous game combining for 23 points and 10 assists compared to the 2 of 12 shooting and six points combined from Johnson and Justin Ahrens.

Ohio State is a good offensive rebounding team but they shouldn’t be impossible to stop when shots go up (even though Minnesota made them look impossible to stop three weeks ago). The Buckeyes actually rank 124th in the nation in offensive rebounding percentage and 7th in the Big Ten. Minnesota is 12th in the Big Ten in defensive rebound (in front of Iowa and Nebraska) so obviously making block out hits is an important factor but it shouldn’t be the impossible task that the Gophers made it look like in the previous game.

The Match-Ups

Who defends EJ Liddell? Minnesota will be in a much better situation with Eric Curry available and Jamison Battle healthy. Curry will of course work against Key but he will also see Liddell when OSU goes smaller. Battle will be against Liddell a lot as well and keep an eye on Sean Sutherlin. The Gopher top reserve played 26 minutes against OSU the first time around scoring a dozen points. Sean plays with the type of physicality that Minnesota needs against the Buckeyes. And it will take Battle, Sutherlin, Curry, and likely some extra help from Charlie Daniels and Treyton Thompson to win this game. Minnesota can’t get dominated up front like they were in the first game.

Branham was a key part of the previous game. His offensive rebounding, five scores, and attack and dish/kick plays really helped OSU. This is where a healthy EJ Stephens needs to step in and make a difference. Stephens is coming off a clutch showing against Penn State and the Gophers need his length on the 6’5 OSU freshman. If EJ can play a solid two way game it would go a long ways for the Gophers.

OSU’s frontcourt dominance made everybody forget that Loewe and Willis far out-played Johnson and Ahrens. Ahrens is only a three point option and not an attack option at all. He and Eugene Brown III are the perfect players for Willis to move with on the defensive end and then go the other way and be the offensive playmaking centerpiece. That leaves Loewe on 6’1 170 pound Jamari Wheeler. This will be a new match-up for Loewe and one that Loewe needs to keep in front of him. Wheeler can shoot the three but if he is getting penetration the Buckeyes will be really hard to stop.

Prediction

Ohio State dominated Minnesota up front too much to call for the upset but I’m telling you there is upset formula to this game. Ohio State is coming off of a win over their hated rivals and have games against Indiana and Illinois in the near future. The Gophers are low in the standings meaning the OSU crowd won’t be what it usually is and the Buckeye players surely remember how badly they dominated the Gophers the first time up front (overconfidence is possible). Minnesota comes in off a win over Penn State and knowing they played OSU without their leader three weeks ago and with two pieces playing big minutes at well under full health. I like the guard match-up for the Gophers and if Minnesota can cut 40 percent off of that 20 o-boards for 27 points, and limit Liddell to his 20 point/7 rebound average as opposed to 23/15, they could have a shot. The prediction is the Buckeyes. They were too frontcourt dominant to look past in game one. But this game will be different.

Ohio State 68 Minnesota 63