What last year’s COVID pauses tell us about Ohio State’s return

On Dec 31, 2021

Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann said he has reached out to other coaches to see how they have handled long layoffs.

The press conference was done virtually. Seated in a non-descript conference room with closed blinds and powered-down computers behind him, Tom Izzo finally had a game to talk about, but there wasn’t a whole lot to say.

It was Jan. 28, and Michigan State had just taken a 30-point road loss to Rutgers in which it scored only 37 points. But more than just the lowest-scoring output for the program since 2008, or the first Scarlet Knights win in 13 tries against the Spartans, it was the first time Michigan State had played a game in 20 days after COVID-19 forced the program into a lengthy layoff.

During his press conference, Izzo copped to the fact that his team had “a little COVID hangover” but didn’t allow that line of thinking to go much further.

“I understand that, but that will not be an excuse for the way we played,” Izzo said following the 67-37 loss. “That would be a good excuse for losing the game, but not for the way we played.”

Michigan State’s 20-day layoff was one of five for Big Ten teams that lasted more than 10 days during a season played without fans and before the availability of vaccines. Those five teams went 2-3 in their first returns from their midseason layoffs, a situation Ohio State expects to find itself in Sunday when it is scheduled to play at Nebraska in its first game since Dec. 11.

This 22-day layoff saw the Buckeyes cancel three games. And while the Cornhuskers are yet to beat a team ranked higher than No. 242 nationally according to KenPom.com while compiling a 6-7 record, it’s fair to predict a uniquely challenging game as Ohio State tries to shake off rust and regain the form that saw it win four straight games until going on COVID pause.

That’s not likely to be a one-night problem, either. According to EvanMiya.com, a college basketball analytics website run by Evan Miyakawa, teams returning from a COVID pause of at least 14 days last season experienced an efficiency decrease for their first two games before returning to normal in game three.

Per Miyakawa, teams returning from two-week layoffs saw their performances finish between 2-3 points lower than would be expected during each of their first two games. That might be what the scoreboard shows, but the journey to that point feels more difficult.

Last season, Nebraska’s 27-day layoff from Jan. 10-Feb. 6 was the longest in the Big Ten and came amid a nine-game losing streak. After a 66-55 loss at Michigan State on Feb. 6, Cornhuskers coach Fred Hoiberg said he had no idea what to expect from his team in its return.

“I thought we got a little tired early, and I expected that,” he said after the loss. “That’s going to happen with what we just went through. There’s some of that to be expected. Not having legs, we haven’t shot the ball well in practice at all. You have to go hard (in practice to get timing back), and that’s going to take their legs away.”

This year, the Cornhuskers have avoided any cancellations due to the virus but will also be coming off a layoff. Nebraska’s last game was Dec. 22, a home win against Kennesaw State.

The Buckeyes resumed practice with five players Dec. 26 in what was their first team activity since Dec. 15. More players have come off COVID restrictions in the ensuing days, and the plan is to bring close to a full roster to Pinnacle Bank Arena, where Ohio State is 4-1 all-time.

Ohio State coach Chris Holtmann said during a Wednesday radio appearance on WBNS-FM (97.1) that he has reached out to multiple coaches to see how they have handled such layoffs. Izzo is among them.

The Big Ten team that best navigated disruption last season was Michigan, which endured separate pauses of 12 and 23 days and, in both cases, won its first games back. After the longer layoff, coach Juwan Howard said the opening 10 minutes were his primary concern in a Valentine’s Day game at Wisconsin. The Badgers led by as many as 14 points during the final minute of the first half, but the Wolverines outscored them 40-20 after halftime for a 67-59 win.