NFL Week 17 game picks, schedule guide, playoff picture, fantasy football tips,

On Dec 31, 2021

7:10 AM ET

ESPN staff

The Week 17 NFL schedule for the 2021 season is stacked with great matchups and we have you covered with what you need to know heading into the weekend. Our NFL Nation reporters bring us the biggest keys to every game, a bold prediction for each matchup and, of course, final score picks.

Additionally, ESPN Stats & Information provides a big stat to know, playoff picture and/or draft position implications and a betting nugget for each contest, and our Football Power Index (FPI) goes inside the numbers with a matchup rating (on a scale of 1 to 100) and a game projection. ESPN researcher Kyle Soppe hands out helpful fantasy football intel, as well. Everything you want to know is here in one spot to help you get ready for a loaded weekend of NFL football.

Let’s get into the full Week 17 slate, including Patrick Mahomes vs. Joe Burrow in an AFC powerhouse showdown, Ryan Tannehill against his old Miami team, Arizona and Dallas dueling for playoff positioning, the Ravens trying to stay in the playoff picture against Matthew Stafford‘s Rams and potentially Ben Roethlisberger‘s last game at Heinz Field. It all culminates with a Monday Night Football matchup between the Browns and the Steelers on ESPN. (Game times are Sunday unless otherwise noted.)

1 p.m. ET | CBS
Matchup rating: 77.4 | Spread: KC -5.5 (51)

What to watch for: The winner of this game will be the team that can control it with its offense. Kansas City leads the NFL in points per drive and has been able to sustain possessions better than anyone else in the league. And while the Bengals can be dynamic through the air, they might use Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon to exploit a Kansas City defense that ranks 31st in run stop win rate and allows 4.7 yards per rush attempt, which is third-worst in the NFL. — Ben Baby

Bold prediction: The Chiefs’ Patrick Mahomes and the Bengals’ Joe Burrow will each throw for more than 300 yards. They are fifth and sixth, respectively, in passing yards, both with more than 4,000. Each has five 300-yard passing performances this season, with Burrow coming off a 525-yard game last week. — Adam Teicher

Stat to know: Mixon has 16 touchdowns this season and is one shy of matching Carl Pickens (1995) for the most in a season in Bengals history.

Playoff and draft implications: The Chiefs have a berth and the AFC West locked up, but they can now clinch the No. 1 seed in the AFC this week with a win and a Titans loss. The Bengals, meanwhile, can clinch the AFC North with either a win or a Ravens loss and a Steelers tie. See current playoff picture.

Injuries: Chiefs | Bengals

What to know for fantasy: In each of the past five weeks, a Bengals receiver has finished inside the top 10 at the position. See Week 17 rankings.

Betting nugget: Burrow is 8-2 against the spread (ATS) in his career as an underdog of at least three points, including 3-0 ATS at home. Read more.

Teicher’s pick: Chiefs 31, Bengals 23
Baby’s pick: Chiefs 37, Bengals 21
FPI prediction: KC, 61.1% (by an average of 3.8 points)

Matchup must-reads: Edwards-Helaire week-to-week with bruised shoulder … Burrow buys custom watches for offensive line

1 p.m. ET | Fox
Matchup rating: 73.3 | Spread: LAR -4 (47)

What to watch for: Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford has carved up man-to-man defenses this season, throwing 22 touchdowns and three interceptions. The Ravens usually excel in this coverage but have struggled this season because they are without their top two cornerbacks — Marlon Humphrey and Marcus Peters are out with season-ending injuries — and could be without their third-best one (Anthony Averett is questionable with a rib injury). Baltimore has allowed an NFL-high 23 touchdown passes in man coverage this year, with only three picks. — Jamison Hensley

Bold prediction: Rams defensive tackle Aaron Donald will produce his third multi-sack game of the season — regardless of whether it’s Lamar Jackson or Tyler Huntley at quarterback for Baltimore. He remembers the embarrassment the Rams suffered in front of a prime time audience in 2019, when the Ravens defeated them in L.A. 45-6, and admits he’s out for revenge. Donald earned NFC Defensive Player of the Month in December, when he produced six sacks and two forced fumbles. Watch for him to continue his late-season tear against the Ravens. — Lindsey Thiry

Stat to know: Los Angeles receiver Cooper Kupp has a chance to become the fourth player since 1970 to lead the league in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns in a single season. He would join Steve Smith in 2005, Sterling Sharpe in 1992 and Jerry Rice in 1990. Kupp has 132 catches, 1,734 yards and 14 TDs.

Playoff and draft implications: The Rams have a playoff spot clinched and they can now secure the NFC West with a win and a Cardinals loss. Their odds to finish as the…