Predicting the NFL playoff picture

There are just 32 remaining games in the 2021 NFL season, and only six playoff spots are clinched. Amazingly, 24 teams’ postseason hopes are still mathematically alive. And even with all of two weeks left, there are endless permutations of how the rest of the regular season could play out and how the playoff field could shape up. But today, we’re predicting what will happen with just one scenario: chalk.

We used simulations from ESPN’s Football Power Index (FPI) to determine the most likely playoff field and seedings. By our numbers, there is a 7% chance the following prediction nails every team and every seed in the NFC, and a 5% chance of doing the same in the AFC. The probability of both conferences aligning exactly as follows is just 0.5%. That might seem low for a best-guess prediction, but that’s how much uncertainty remains. These were the final standings that our FPI simulations produced the most. And we’re going to explain how we got there, complete with projected game scores for Weeks 17 and 18.

So let’s break down the final two weeks of the 2021 season and the resulting playoff field if the most likely scenario via ESPN’s FPI plays out. Who clinched a spot in the 14-team field, who locked up a division title or No. 1 seed, and who was left out of the postseason altogether? Plus, we take a quick look ahead to the playoffs and what we might expect there. Let’s dig in.

Jump to:
Scores: Week 17 | Week 18
Final standings: AFC | NFC

Projected Week 17 scores

LAR-BAL: Rams 27, Ravens 7
ATL-BUF: Bills 38, Falcons 14
NYG-CHI: Bears 34, Giants 27
KC-CIN: Chiefs 10, Bengals 6
LV-IND: Colts 26, Raiders 10
JAX-NE: Patriots 31, Jaguars 13
TB-NYJ: Buccaneers 34, Jets 14
MIA-TEN: Titans 27, Dolphins 10
PHI-WSH: Eagles 41, Washington 21
DEN-LAC: Chargers 16, Broncos 8
HOU-SF: 49ers 34, Texans 7
ARI-DAL: Cardinals 17, Cowboys 16
CAR-NO: Saints 23, Panthers 17
DET-SEA: Lions 18, Seahawks 17
MIN-GB: Packers 27, Vikings 26
CLE-PIT: Steelers 30, Browns 27

The story of Week 17: Most contenders fighting for playoff spots took care of business. The Chargers earned a crucial 16-8 victory over division foe Denver. Jonathan Taylor led a Carson Wentz-less Colts squad to 26-10 win over the Raiders. Trey Lance and the 49ers obliterated the Texans. And the Saints — now with quarterback Taysom Hill back — managed to scratch out a 23-17 win over the Panthers. The Packers held serve for the No. 1 seed with a one-point victory over the Vikings, while one of their chief challengers, Dallas, lost by the same margin to Arizona.

Not every playoff hopeful won, however. Cleveland’s season, which began with such high hopes, officially ended with a 30-27 loss to the Steelers. As did Washington’s campaign, in a blowout loss to the Eagles.

Projected Week 18 scores

NO-ATL: Saints 30, Falcons 22
PIT-BAL: Ravens 33, Steelers 20
NYJ-BUF: Bills 37, Jets 21
CIN-CLE: Bengals 27, Browns 21
GB-DET: Lions 24, Packers 21
TEN-HOU: Titans 31, Texans 28
IND-JAX: Colts 33, Jaguars 13
CAR-TB: Buccaneers 36, Panthers 26
NE-MIA: Dolphins 10, Patriots 3
CHI-MIN: Bears 17, Vikings 14
WSH-NYG: Washington 54, Giants 31
DAL-PHI: Eagles 28, Cowboys 30
KC-DEN: Chiefs 34, Broncos 7
LAC-LV: Raiders 20, Chargers 19
SF-LAR: 49ers 42, Rams 7
SEA-ARI: Seahawks 34, Cardinals 27

In Week 18, some underdogs spoiled a party for their division rivals. Most notably, the Seahawks — at the end of a lost season and a week after losing to the Lions — toppled the Cardinals to ruin Arizona’s shot at a last-week comeback for the NFC West title. The Patriots struggled in Miami, as they fell in a sleepy 10-3 game to the Dolphins — though their wild-card bid had already been locked up the prior week. And the Packers played Jordan Love at QB with the No. 1 seed secured and lost to the Lions.

Projecting how the AFC plays out

1. Kansas City Chiefs (13-4)
2. Tennessee Titans (12-5)
3. Buffalo Bills (11-6)
4. Cincinnati Bengals (10-7)
5. Indianapolis Colts (11-6)
6. New England Patriots (10-7)
7. Los Angeles Chargers (9-8)
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8. Las Vegas Raiders (9-8)
9. Miami Dolphins (9-8)
10. Baltimore Ravens (9-8)
11. Pittsburgh Steelers (8-8-1)
12. Cleveland Browns (7-10)
13. Denver Broncos (7-10)
14. New York Jets (4-13)
15. Houston Texans (4-13)
16. Jacksonville Jaguars (2-15)

play

Marcus Spears says Mac Jones and the Patriots won’t get out of the first round of the playoffs.

Kansas City clinches the top seed: The Chiefs controlled their destiny to the No. 1 seed, and they took care of business. K.C. first pulled out a bizarrely defensive 10-6 win over the Bengals before blowing out the Broncos in Week 18. The Titans held the tiebreaker over the Chiefs, and they did their part to keep the pressure on, beating the Dolphins and Texans. But because the Chiefs won twice and finished 13-4, Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid earned the top seed, giving them the coveted wild-card round bye. The Chiefs haven’t had to play a wild-card game since 2017 despite last missing the playoffs in 2014.

The Bills edge out the Pats for the AFC…