The 10 races that will decide the Senate majority

On Dec 27, 2021

Democrats are defending the narrowest of Senate majorities in 2022 as Republicans look to fight their way back into power after a series of crushing defeats.

While Democrats are going on offense in a handful of states where GOP incumbents are retiring, the party is also facing strong national headwinds in their bid to hold onto the Senate. The party of a new president — in this case President BidenJoe Biden Sunday show preview: Omicron surges, and Harris sits for extensive interview Democrats like what they saw in Harris-Charlamagne tha God exchange Biden’s policies are not very merry MORE — almost always loses ground in Congress in midterm elections.

Given Democrats’ slim Senate majority, control of the upper chamber is likely to come down to just a handful of states. Here are the 10 races that will decide the Senate majority next year:

Pennsylvania

With President Biden’s narrow victory in the state last year and the coming retirement of Sen. Pat ToomeyPatrick (Pat) Joseph Toomey Meet Washington’s most ineffective senator: Joe Manchin Black women look to build upon gains in coming elections Watch live: GOP senators present new infrastructure proposal MORE (R-Pa.), Pennsylvania may well offer Democrats their best chance to pick up a new Senate seat in 2022.

So far, more than half a dozen Democrats have entered the race to succeed Toomey, including Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, Rep. Conor Lamb (Pa.) and Montgomery County Board of Commissioners Chair Val Arkoosh.

And while the Democratic primary field has yet to yield a clear front-runner, the Republican field is just as fluid.

Sean Parnell, who had won former President Donald TrumpDonald Trump Biden may face midterm reckoning on Supreme Court reform Joe Manchin, the climate Grinch Trump spokesman suing Jan. 6 panel, says he is cooperating with investigation MORE’s endorsement and was seen as the likely GOP front-runner, dropped out of the race last month amid a series of personal controversies, leaving a vacuum on the Republican side. The entrance of celebrity physician Mehmet OzMehmet Oz The 10 races that will decide the Senate majority McCormick drawing support from Trump alumni ahead of Pennsylvania Senate bid McCormick moves closer to Senate run in Pennsylvania MORE into the GOP primary in late November only served to shake up the race further.

Georgia

Sen. Raphael WarnockRaphael Warnock Democrats set for showdown over filibuster, voting rights History shows only a new Voting Rights Act can preserve our fragile democracy Democrats end year reopening old wounds MORE (D-Ga.) is heading into 2022 fresh off a history-making victory in a January runoff, making the 2022 Senate contest in Georgia a test of whether Democrats can maintain their momentum in a state that has only recently become a battleground.

Republicans argue, however, that the state still leans in their direction, especially in a midterm year that is expected to be unfriendly for Democrats.

Former football star Herschel Walker, who has high name recognition in the state as well as Trump’s endorsement, has emerged as the favorite for the GOP nomination. And while he still faces some primary opposition, top Republicans — including Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnellAddison (Mitch) Mitchell McConnell Your 2021 holiday dinner political survival guide Joe Manchin, the climate Grinch Photos of the Year MORE (Ky.) — have coalesced around Walker, seeing him as the best candidate to oust Warnock next year.

Given both Trump’s involvement in the race and Democrat Stacey Abrams’s entrance into the contest for Georgia governor, the 2022 Senate election in Georgia is quickly emerging as the epicenter of the battle for control of the upper chamber.

Arizona

Like Warnock, Sen. Mark KellyMark Kelly Senate Democrats press for info on nursing home boosters Democrats mull hardball tactics to leapfrog parliamentarian on immigration US Chamber launches ads thanking Manchin for fighting T bill MORE (D-Ariz.) is heading into his 2022 reelection bid having just run a competitive race in 2020, and he’s among the GOP’s top targets in the Senate.

But before they can take on Kelly directly, Republicans will first have to resolve a relatively crowded primary.

While polling shows state Attorney General Mark Brnovich leading his rivals for the GOP nomination, Trump has somewhat complicated that picture by publicly taunting Brnovich for not doing more to reverse Biden’s win in Arizona in the 2020 presidential election. Trump also appeared at a fundraiser for another GOP candidate, Blake Masters, at Mar-a-Lago last month.

The eventual winner of the Republican primary will have to contend with Kelly, one of the most prolific fundraisers in the Senate, in the 2022 general election. Still, with Democrats facing tough national headwinds next year, Kelly’s seat is far from safe.

Wisconsin

Sen. Ron JohnsonRonald (Ron) Harold Johnson Ukraine president, US lawmakers huddle amid tensions with Russia The Memo: Nation’s racial reckoning plays out in 2021’s big trials McConnell urges Thune to run for reelection amid retirement talk MORE (R-Wis.), one of the most despised figures by the left, hasn’t yet said whether he will seek another term in the Senate in 2022, leaving Wisconsin Republicans in limbo for the time being.

The field of Democrats vying to take Johnson on, however, is vast. So far, Wisconsin Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes has led his top primary rivals in fundraising, while also picking up high-profile endorsements from the likes of Rep. James Clyburn (D-S.C.) and Sen. Elizabeth WarrenElizabeth Warren 10 Democrats who could run in 2024 if Biden doesn’t Harris tests negative for COVID-19 after close contact with aide Five areas where Biden faces pressure to do more on COVID-19 MORE (D-Mass.).

Still, Wisconsin won’t hold its primaries until August, leaving the nominating contest far from settled. Meanwhile, Johnson indicated last month that he will make a decision on his political future soon. If Johnson chooses to seek another term, he’ll be the only GOP Senate incumbent to seek reelection in a state that Biden won in 2020.

Nevada

Former Nevada state Attorney General Adam Laxalt is the likely GOP favorite to challenge Sen. Catherine Cortez MastoCatherine Marie Cortez Masto Democrats mull hardball tactics to leapfrog parliamentarian on immigration Senate parliamentarian rejects Democrats’ third immigration offer US Chamber launches ads thanking Manchin for fighting T bill MORE (D-Nev.) next year. He’s already picked up the support of both Trump and McConnell, and has the benefit of already having run statewide, both successfully and unsuccessfully.

Democrats have been eager to cast Laxalt as a Trump acolyte who has backed the former president’s false claim that the 2020 election was rigged. They’re also quick to note that Laxalt lost his 2018 bid for the Nevada governor’s mansion.

Still, there’s little doubt that Nevada is in play for the GOP. Trump lost the state last year by only 2 points. At the same time, Republicans picked up some support among Latino voters in 2020, which could give Democrats a rockier path to victory next year.

North Carolina

Despite Trump’s victories in the state in 2016 and 2020, North Carolina remains nearly evenly split between the two parties statewide. At the same time, Sen. Richard BurrRichard Mauze Burr Pelosi faces pushback over stock trade defense Members of Congress not running for reelection in 2022 North Carolina Democrat Jeff Jackson drops out of Senate race MORE’s (R-N.C.) decision to retire after his current term expires in 2023 has created a classic battleground scenario.