A way-too-early projection of Ohio State football’s 2023 recruiting class: Buckeyes

COLUMBUS, Ohio — Ohio State football’s 2022 recruiting class signed 18 players during the early signing period, with potentially a few more coming aboard in the next few weeks.

The bulk of the work for this class is done which means it’s time to turn to the 2023 class, which already has two commits in Ty Lockwood and Joshua Padilla. Sonny Styles was part of that group but he chose to reclassify to the 2022 class and graduate a year early. He will join the team in June.

There are a ton of questions that’ll need to be answered first if the Buckeyes hope to once again put together another top-five class next December. For now, they prepare to close out the season the right way by beating Utah in the Rose Bowl.

But starting Jan. 2, head coach Ryan Day and whoever is still on the coaching staff will go to work on a 2023 class where much of its success may rest on which coaches are still in the building.

“They obviously want to know who’s going to be here year in and year out,” Day said.

Here’s a way-too-early projection of a best-case scenario for the 2023 OSU recruiting class. Lockwood and Padilla have already given a commitment to the Buckeyes:

Obviously, a lot is subject to change between now and when players in this class will actually sign next December. But as of right now, this 22-man class is worth 316.30 points with an average 247Sports.com star rating of 95.15. Assuming the 2022 class closes out with a few more additions, this projected group would be the third straight to go over the 300-point threshold and the fifth since 2017.

The group features five players currently classified as five-star and five others who are top 100 recruits. At just 21 commitments, it leaves for the late-bloomers the Buckeyes’ recruiting classes have been known to add in the Day era. His 2020 class had 25 commits, the 2021 class had 23, and the 2022 class has 18, but he’s assured fans it’s not a finished product.

“We’ll probably end up signing 20-plus guys here when it’s all said and done,” Day said.

This projected 2023 class would be the second-best in total points behind 2021′s 321.68 points, and first in average star rating behind among Day’s classes.

What about the quarterback?

Ohio State wants a quarterback in every class, and even with the rollercoaster that’s been the past 12 months, it achieved that in 2022. Quinn Ewers (Texas) and Jack Miller transferred out, but in C.J. Stroud (2020), Kyle McCord (2021) and Devin Brown (2022), you have a room with more clarity and a better understanding of where everyone fits into the hierarchy.

That brings us to 2023, where I purposefully left off a field general. OSU will likely end up with a quarterback in this class, but with how things currently stand, that option hasn’t revealed himself.

The Buckeyes have offered six 2023 quarterbacks with two — Malachi Nelson (USC) and Eli Holstein (Texas A&M) — already committed to other schools. The others are Dante Moore, Nicholaus Iamaleava, Jackson Arnold and Dylan Lonergan.

Each is a top-100 recruit in a cycle where there are nine top-100 quarterbacks, and four of them are five-stars. The program has some catching up to do with all of them. Ohio State flipped Ewers from Texas, changing how it could approach the 2023 class. Then he reclassified, and that approach changed again. And then Ewers transferred to Texas.

As the Buckeyes spend the next few months playing catch-up in 2023 quarterback recruiting, it’s probably safe to leave that spot blank for now with the understanding that someone will eventually fill it.

The big ‘what if’ at cornerback

This projected class features three defensive backs who are all ranked within the top 200, headlined by A.J. Harris.

The five-star is a best-case scenario for the Buckeyes, and whether he comes to Columbus may hinge on whether Kerry Coombs is still in Columbus. He’s built a rapport with Coombs that started when he was offered last spring, then got on campus for a one-on-one workout in June. Coombs even made it a point to see him during an in-home visit ahead of Signing Day.

Ohio State is set at cornerback for the next two years. Denzel Burke has proven to be one of the best young players in the country, while Jordan Hancock and Jakailin Johnson are two former top-100 recruits who will have bigger roles in Year 2. The return of Cameron Brown provides even more depth.

But this 2023 cycle is where the reload is supposed to be, and that starts with Harris and trickles down Christian Gray as another top-150 recruit. Those two are OSU’s top targets, and why it’s so important that the question of if Coombs is still on this staff next season is so important, even if it’s only as a position coach.

Quality and quantity on the offensive line

Ohio State needs ready-made talent on the offensive line. There’s been a healthy balance of top-tier guys and those who are developmental, but in 2022 that scale tipped too much to the developmental side.

That class saw an end to a streak of five consecutive cycles where the Buckeyes brought in at least one five-star offensive lineman, instead landing one player in the 100s (Tegra Tshabola), another in the 300s (George Fitzpatrick) and a third outside the top 1,000 (Avery Henry). It’s also waiting for another guy in the 100s who’s pushing back his decision to the February signing period in Carson Hinzman.

They need to swing big in 2023 and hit big in this cycle. You can’t depend on hitting on a Dawand Jones-type hidden gem in every cycle.

“We’ll see as we get into the next year or so,” Day said. “We’ll see how these guys have done. If they’re able to get on the field in the next year or so then we’ve done a good job. If they haven’t then we’ve swung and missed. The proof will be in the pudding here over the next calendar year.”

That starts in their backyard with Findlay’s Luke Montgomery. He has a spot in the class whenever he wants it, and he knows that. But don’t think that this is a complete lock as schools like Clemson continue to make a push. Chase Bisontis joins him as a top-100 recruit and potentially pure offensive tackle recruit the Buckeyes haven’t had in two cycles.

Then there’s Payton Kirkland and Austin Sierveld as two Midwestern prospects who might be another case of top 100 recruits OSU got in on early before the world found out about them. Trevor Lauck may end up in the same boat once he gets out to camps this spring and summer.

For now, Padilla stands alone in the class, serving as a quality checkmark for a program that likes to start its classes from within Ohio.

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