Ohio will lose a U.S. House district next year; who will be eliminated?

On Apr 27, 2021

Ohio's congressional districts from 2012 through 2022, in which the GOP maintained a 12-4 advantage for the entire decade.

Ohio will lose a seat in Congress next year but the big question is who will be the winners and losers under the soon-to-be redrawn district maps.

It’ll be like a game of congressional musical chairs: someone won’t have a seat when the music stops. Complicating the game are new voter-approved rules. Simplifying the game is that at least three incumbents are opting out.

More:Ohio’s U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan launches bid for U.S. Senate; first Democrat in the race

Democrat Tim Ryan of Niles and Republican Steve Stivers of Upper Arlington announced their next career moves don’t involve seeking re-election. Ryan is running for U.S. Senate and Stivers is going to lead the Ohio Chamber of Commerce starting in May. Democrat Marcia Fudge of Cleveland joined the Biden administration as secretary of Housing and Urban Development. Additionally, U.S. Rep. Mike Turner, R-Dayton, is considering running for U.S. Senate.

“It changes the calculus tremendously because you can draw away some districts without leaving any victims in your wake,” said David Niven, a political scientist at the University of Cincinnati. “I think incumbents insert themselves in this process relentlessly. I don’t know that there is any other political interaction that is as fraught and overheated as an incumbent seeking to have their political future preserved.”

Republican strategist Mark Weaver, who has consulted on dozens of congressional campaigns, put forward one scenario. Ryan’s district could be absorbed into adjacent red districts, he said. Turner’s district could be split up among other Republican-held districts and Stivers’ district could be shifted toward southwest Ohio, away from its current central and southeast area.

“It gives more freedom to draw,” Weaver said. “The map is easier to move with two empty spaces on it.”

Hamilton County is currently split between the 1st and 2nd Districts, which are represented by Republicans Steve Chabot and Brad Wenstrup.

Niven said Chabot could be at risk for being drawn out of a job. “If the spirit of the new rules is followed, you really shouldn’t see zig-zagging lines cutting Cincinnati to pieces. Therefore you shouldn’t see the somewhat strange part of Cincinnati and Warren County district that makes Steve Chabot possible.”

Currently, Democrats hold four seats and Republicans hold 12 in Ohio’s U.S. House delegation.

Voter rights groups said they’re focused on making sure Ohio’s new district maps are fair.

“We are not concerned about what seat is cut. We’re concerned about ensuring that we have a fair and transparent process that upholds the reforms that were passed in 2018,” said Jen Miller, executive director of the Ohio League of Women Voters. “At the end of the day, Ohioans know that our current Congressional map doesn’t work for us. It doesn’t represent the will of the people. Ultimately, far more important than where a district gets cut is are those districts truly representing the people because they were drawn in a fair way.”

Ohio voters approved constitutional amendments for state legislative maps in November 2015 and congressional maps in May 2018. The new rules call for more support from the minority party, more public participation and districts that are compact and keep communities together.

State Sen. Nickie Antonio, D-Lakewood, said the state’s congressional districts shouldn’t look the same next time around.