2021 NFL Mock Draft 1.0: Quarterbacks go 1-2-3-4

On Mar 25, 2021

It’s that time of year, so we’re giving you what I know most of you want: a mock draft.

But first, I think it’s important that I tell you a few things about the exercise here, from my standpoint, and also about the draft class and draft year as a whole.

1) Teams are still on the road at pro days. The last set of draft meetings starts in early April. The information trade really ramps up then. So while I might have a hunch that connects a player to a team here, really, even the teams haven’t made final calls or plans on guys, which makes tying this team to that player at this point a little premature. We’ll get there in a few weeks.

2) With that in mind, really my goal with this particular mock is to get guys going in the right range. I do have some players who I matched with a team need that resulted in my getting pushback from scouts. In some cases, I kept the players where I had them, but I’ll tell you in the blurbs where those sorts of reaches are.

3) Along those lines, in an effort to accurately place players in the right range, I vetted this mock with about a dozen teams over the last couple days.

4) The quarterbacks are obviously big variables. I have the four top guys going 1-2-3-4. Am I convinced that’ll happen? I am not. But if I had to set a floor right now for the top four (Trevor Lawrence, Zach Wilson, Justin Fields and Trey Lance) being off the board, I put it at the ninth pick.

5) One position that was interesting through the exercise: offensive tackle in particular and offensive line in general. The 2021 class is seen as very strong at those positions. And when you go through the process of matching teams to players, you realize what a godsend that is for the NFL, because a lot of teams have needs at those positions.

6) On the flip side, you’ll see two receivers in the top 10 and three in the top 15, then none for a while. Why? Well, this is a second straight deep group at the position, so I’d bet a lot of teams will wait to address it. And by the way, this trend of strong receiver classes isn’t slowing down soon. Another bumper crop (George Pickens, Chris Olave, Garrett Wilson, Justyn Ross and John Metchie) is expected in 2022. Which, really, is just a sign of where the game’s going.

7) You’ll also see positions like linebacker and tailback are absent, and that’s not an indictment of the players. More so, it’s just a reflection of how teams value those spots—and believe they can find good players at them later on in the draft.

Got all that? O.K., good.

Douglas DeFelice/USA TODAY Sports (Fields); Derick E. Hingle/USA TODAY Sports (Lawrence); Troy Taormina/USA TODAY Sports (Wilson)

So now that you’re all fired up for the mock, here’s a quick preview of what else you’ll find in this week’s GamePlan.

• A power ranking of available free agents!

• An analysis of where things stand with Russell Wilson.

• A reminder on offseason programs.

• The identity of a draft quarterback who’s tied to Cam Newton.

And now that we have that out of the way, let’s dive into my first (very rough) mock draft.

For more coverage of the draft, check out our friends at NFL Draft Bible.

Without further ado, here’s my 1 through 32 …

Handout Photo/USA TODAY Sports

1) Jacksonville Jaguars: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson

No need to explain this one.

2) New York Jets: Zach Wilson, QB, BYU

In the end, my feeling is the chance to reset the quarterback-on-a-rookie-contract clock, along with Wilson’s upside, will be too much for the Jets to pass up.

3) Denver Broncos (trade with the Dolphins, who currently have this pick via the Texans): Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State

Curveball! Carolina and New England could make moves up, too. But new Denver GM George Paton has been on the ground at the quarterback pro days, and I’m not ruling out a big first statement from the new guy in charge. The Dolphins will receive the Broncos’ No. 9 pick below.

4) Atlanta Falcons: Trey Lance, QB, North Dakota State

The Falcons are another team that’s had its decision makers’ boots on the ground for all the big quarterback pro days. So let’s make a little history here, and go quarterbacks 1-2-3-4.

5) Cincinnati Bengals: Ja’Marr Chase, WR LSU

I could easily see Penei Sewell or Rashawn Slater going here, but word on the street is that Joe Burrow is stumping for Cincy to bring his old Tiger teammate to Ohio. And the Riley Reiff signing gives the Bengals the flexibility to add a playmaker who’s an ideal stylistic fit for their quarterback.