Dow Jones Futures: Nvidia, Microsoft AI Events, Fed Meeting Loom As Big Tests;

Dow Jones futures will open Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting and AI events from Nvidia (NVDA) and Microsoft (MSFT) headline the coming week.

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The stock market rally had a mixed week. The Dow Jones and S&P 500 were little changed while the Nasdaq and small-cap Russell 200 retreated below their 21-day lines. Software stocks, which looked promising early in the week on Oracle (ORCL) earnings, sold off Friday on Adobe (ADBE) guidance.

A trio of big events are on tap for the coming week. The Federal Reserve will meet Tuesday-Wednesday, with policymakers giving their latest projections for Fed rate cuts on Wednesday afternoon.

Nvidia will hold a four-day GTC Conference starting Monday, with a new AI chip and a slew of other AI announcements. Microsoft willhold its “New Era Of Work” event on March 21, showcasing AI features and more.

The Fed rate outlook will have a huge impact on financial markets, but the Nvidia and Microsoft events are key for the AI rally as well, especially after Adobe rocked AI software plays.

Nvidia and Microsoft are huge players in artificial intelligence. Their unveilings, announcements and partnerships could have a big positive or negative impact on tech companies including, but not limited to: Advanced Micro Devices (AMD), Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Arm Holdings (ARM), Arista Networks (ANET), ServiceNow (NOW), Oracle (ORCL), Google parent Alphabet (GOOGL) and many more.

Microsoft, Oracle, Google and ServiceNow stock offered buying opportunities during the week, but had backed off by Friday’s close. Arista Networks has a new base while ARM is working on one.

The current pullback and the big upcoming events offer reasons for investors to hold off on new buys in the very short term.

Nvidia stock, ARM and ServiceNow are on IBD Leaderboard. Microsoft stock is on the IBD Long-Term Leaders list. Nvidia, Arista Networks, ServiceNow, Microsoft and ARM stock are on the IBD 50. Nvidia, NOW, SMCI and Arista stock are on the IBD Big Cap 20. Arista Networks was Friday’s IBD Stock Of The Day.

The video embedded in the article discussed the weekly market action and analyzed ServiceNow, Arista Networks and East West Bancorp.

Dow Jones Futures Today

Dow Jones futures open at 6 p.m. ET on Sunday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures.

Remember that overnight action in Dow futures and elsewhere doesn’t necessarily translate into actual trading in the next regular stock market session.

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Stock Market Rally

The stock market rally seemed poised to set fresh record highs after Tuesday, but the major indexes pulled back for weekly losses thanks to Friday losses

The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed fractionally lower in last week’s stock market trading. The S&P 500 index dipped 0.1%. The Nasdaq composite sank 0.7%, falling below its 21-day moving average and the 16,000 level. The small-cap Russell 2000 sank 2.1% as market breadth was poor.

The market rally is in the midst of a pullback or pause that started with Nvidia’s March 8 downside reversal.

The Nasdaq is back to about where it was on Feb. 12, while the Russell 2000 has dropped below its late December peak. That could let new bases and bullish pullbacks to form. But a number of breakouts or buy signals from the past couple of weeks have struggled or failed.

The 10-year Treasury yield shot up 21.5 basis points to 4.3%, surging toward 2024 highs on hot inflation reports heading into the Fed meeting.

U.S. crude oil futures jumped 3.9% to $81.04 a barrel last week. Copper prices soared 5.9% to the highest close in 11 months due to supply issues.

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ETFs

Among growth ETFs, the iShares Expanded Tech-Software Sector ETF (IGV) 1.6%, including Friday’s 2.8% gap down below the 50-day line. Microsoft and ServiceNow are two major IGV holdings. The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor ETF (SMH) fell 3.2% in a pullback to the 21-day line. Nvidia stock dominates SMH, with AMD a top component as well.

SPDR S&P Metals & Mining ETF (XME) retreated 3.5% last week but copper miners had a huge week and some steel plays shined. The Global X U.S. Infrastructure Development ETF (PAVE) dipped 0.4%. U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) sank 2.2%. SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB) edged up 0.4%. The Energy Select SPDR ETF (XLE) jumped 3.8% and the Health Care Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLV) slipped 0.7%. The Industrial Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLI) slipped 0.2%.

The Financial Select SPDR ETF (XLF) advanced 0.5% to a two-year high. The SPDR S&P Regional Banking ETF (KRE) retreated 3.45%.

Reflecting more-speculative story stocks, ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK) slumped 4.1% last week and ARK Genomics ETF (ARKG) tumbled 6.35%.

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