Arizona’s U.S. Senate race shifts to a toss up as polls tighten despite massive

Despite a massive fundraising advantage held by incumbent Sen. Mark Kelly (D–Ariz.), the Cook Political Report shifted Arizona’s U.S. Senate race from leans Democratic to a toss up between Kelly and GOP challenger Blake Masters on Thursday.

Kelly’s campaign reported raising more than $79.4 million through Oct. 19, over six and a half times more than the $12 million that Masters’ campaign reported raising during the same period.

The race has been in flux in recent weeks, with Cook Political Report moving it from toss up to leans Democratic just one month ago. Private polling that shows the race tightening spurred the shift back to a toss up with less than two weeks to go until the general election.

Around 43% of the money Kelly’s campaign raised through Oct. 19 came from small individual contributions of less than $200. Small individual contributions make up 21% of Masters’ campaign haul.

Large individual contributions between $200 and $2,900 make up the majority of both Kelly and Masters’ campaign fundraising.

Kelly, who ran unopposed in the Democratic primary, has massively outspent Masters during the general election, shelling out $73.5 million to Masters’ $9.4 million.

Top contributors to Kelly’s campaign include the Democratic online fundraising platform Democracy Engine as well as individuals and PACs affiliated with Alphabet Inc., Apple, Amazon and Microsoft.

Individuals affiliated with Thiel Capital are top contributors to Masters’ campaign. Thiel Capital is run by Masters’ former boss Peter Thiel, the co-founder of Paypal. The tech investor has also poured millions into super PACs supporting Masters and attacking Kelly, namely funneling $15 million into the Saving Arizona PAC.

Saving Arizona PAC has dropped $23 million into the race, more money than any super PAC has spent so far in Arizona. The National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee, which has spent $9.9 million in Arizona as of Oct. 27, and Sentinel Action Fund, which has spent $7.8 million, are top spenders boosting Masters and opposing Kelly.

The conservative Club for Growth Action, the super PAC arm of the Club for Growth, has also shelled out nearly $4.3 million. Individuals at the Club for Growth gave almost $85,000 to Masters’ campaign, making the group a top contributor through Sept. 30.

But groups aligned with Democratic Senate leadership have also poured tens of millions into the race to protect the incumbent in a valuable Senate seat. Senate Majority PAC, a Carey committee aligned with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D–N.Y.), has spent $21.7 million and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee has dropped $10.6 million into the race.

Arizona’s U.S. Senate race is the fourth most expensive this election cycle based on campaign contributions as of the end of the third quarter of 2022 and outside spending through Oct. 28, according to OpenSecrets data, and it has seen $85.8 million in outside spending during the general election cycle. All five of the races that have seen the most outside spending during the general election – Pennsylvania, Georgia, Nevada, Wisconsin and Arizona – are toss up races that could determine control of the U.S. Senate for at least the next two years.

“Bottom line here: if Democrats have lost Arizona on election night, Republicans are all but sure to win the Senate,” tweeted Jessica Taylor, a reporter at Cook Political Report who penned the organization’s updated ranking.