What’s at stake in the 2022 midterm elections? Here is a guide.
This year’s midterms are the first chance for Americans to grade Joe Biden and congressional Democrats on how they’ve been running the country for the past two years.
Typically midterms don’t go well for the party in power, and Democrats are defending razor-thin majorities in Congress, as one-third of the Senate and the entire House is up for grabs this fall amid a tumultuous time for the country.
Republicans were giddy at the start of 2022 given Biden’s shaky first year in office that was defined by legislative failures and economic woes caused by historic inflation squeezing people’s wallets.
For much of this year, the president’s approval ratings were languishing with most voters saying the country was headed in the wrong direction and independents siding with Republicans.
Many political observers were forecasting a massive red wave that would sweep the GOP into power.
But a relatively successful summer legislatively coupled with the conservative-leaning Supreme Court striking down abortion as a constitutional right has given Democrats and their voters an adrenaline rush as the last leg of the Nov. 8 relay approaches.
Progressive elected officials and activists were also delighted that former President Donald Trump gobbled up so much of the political narrative. During the primaries, Trump flexed his influence in a tussle with Republican rivals that helped polarizing candidates capture nominations and, with it, boosted the once-dismal electoral prospects of Capitol Hill Democrats.
Trump candidates:Primary fallout: Democrats have momentum; Donald Trump Republicans face obstacles
What’s at stake in November is more than just control of Congress and the next presidential contest, however.
Across the country vital statewide elections are being held, including 36 gubernatorial contests that feature many incumbents seeking reelection who dealt with the brunt of the COVID-19 pandemic and other topics Washington failed to handle.
Here is a guide to the 2022 elections
The latest midterm developments you need to know
- Primary season is over, and six months of intraparty political battles revealed one basic conclusion: The Democrats are in better shape for the November elections than previously thought.
- A midterm race once thought to be determined in favor of Republicans by the old adage “It’s the economy, stupid” is being redefined in favor of Democrats with a cross-party rallying cry to save abortion rights.
- The Supreme Court is already having a big impact on this year’s midterm elections. And the court’s docket for the term that begins in October is all but certain to have major repercussions for the 2024 presidential election.
- Sen. Lindsey Graham introduced a national abortion ban that would prohibit the procedure after 15 weeks of pregnancy and provide a Republican response to a politically charged issue that could be galvanizing for Democrats this fall.
Who is running?
Democrats currently hold a 9-seat majority in the House.
It takes 218 seats to control the chamber. The vast majority of races are considered safe for both parties, which means about three-dozen districts rated as toss-ups are going to decide who runs things.
Among the most interesting will be in Colorado, which gained a brand new congressional seat following the 2020 Census count. The new district, which extends north from the Denver suburbs to Greeley, is competitive: President Joe Biden won the area in 2020, for instance, while Trump won it in 2016.
With the Senate at 50-50 (Democrats control the chamber thanks to Vice President Kamala Harris’ tie-breaking vote), the GOP needs a net gain of a single seat to regain the majority.
There are at least two toss-up races — Georgia and Nevada — where Democratic incumbents are on the defensive, but the map has tightened for Republicans too in places such as Wisconsin and Ohio.
The House:Will Republicans flip the House in midterm elections? These 12 races will tell the story.
The Senate:Control of the Senate is now a coin flip: These are the 7 midterm election races to watch
One place where Democrats think they can stiff arm GOP gains is Pennsylvania, which opened up after Republican incumbent Pat Toomey announced his retirement.
Now voters must pick between Democrat John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz in a race that has been defined by social media snipes as much as important policy differences.
Fetterman returned to the campaign trail after a three-month hiatus following a stroke, while Oz has had to defend himself from his ties to New Jersey (he has reportedly lived in the Garden State for decades) and accusations of carpetbagging.
At the state level, gubernatorial candidates are facing a series of different challenges that mirror the debates in Washington, including how they plan to handle violent crime, voting rights and abortion access in light of the Supreme Court’s Dobbs ruling overturning Roe v. Wade.
The headline race is a Georgia rematch between Republican incumbent Brian Kemp and Democrat Stacey Abrams, who is struggling to gain traction this time around.
Summer polls show Kemp’s popularity remains strong after beating a Trump-backed challenger, but the Abrams campaign received some good news this week after a Quinnipiac University survey found the race “too close to call.”
Kemp held 50% of likely voters compared to 48% for Abrams in a poll with a 2.7% margin of error.
Besides the candidates, voters in multiple states have other choices to consider in the form of ballot initiatives dealing with major public policy questions.
There will be least five states — California, Michigan, Montana, Kentucky and Vermont — are asking voters to weigh-in on abortion.
Another five — Arkansas, Maryland, Missouri, North Dakota and South Dakota — will give people the chance to legalize marijuana for residents age 21 or older; and Colorado is giving voters the opportunity to allow the use of certain psychedelics.
Believe it or not, voters in five states are going to be asked whether slavery and/or involuntary servitude should be abolished too. The issue is part of a larger criminal justice reform movement aimed at prison labor.
Polls show Biden’s approval ratings inching up
Biden’s approval rating has improved following a series of legislative wins like the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act and the most significant gun control bill in decades, coupled with falling gas prices.
A Siena College/New York Times poll this week found 42% of respondents approved of how Biden is doing his job as president, compared to 53% who disapproved.
In the same poll, respondents said they were more likely to vote for the Democratic candidate than the Republican candidate in their district, 46%-44%. The poll surveyed 1,399 registered voters nationwide, with a margin of error of 3.6 percentage points.
In the most recent USA TODAY/Suffolk University polls, Democratic candidates led in two Senate battlegrounds.
In a poll of Ohio released Monday, GOP candidate J.D. Vance and Democratic Rep. Tim Ryan were virtually tied in the race to replace retiring Republican Sen. Rob Portman, with Ryan leading Vance 46.6%-45.6%.
Ohio poll:In key US Senate race, Democrat Tim Ryan leads Republican JD Vance by a point
In Nevada, incumbent Democratic Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto faces Republican Adam Laxalt in what is expected to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country. An August survey conducted by Suffolk University and the Reno Gazette-Journal found Cortez Masto leading Laxalt, 45%-38%.
Nevada poll:Democrats’ midterm prospects look better despite headwinds in Suffolk poll
What are the key issues?
The Supreme Court’s landmark decision rolling back Roe cracked open one of the fiercest debates in U.S. history months before the election.
Now Democrats are hoping that it will energize their base in swing districts and battleground states as dozens of anti-abortion laws are being triggered in multiple states.
Abortion effect:Channeling abortion outrage, Democratic women push for upsets in Senate elections
Conservatives have argued the high court’s ruling tossed abortion back to the states where it belongs, but Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham, of South Carolina, introduced a bill that would prohibit abortion nationwide after 15 weeks of pregnancy.
Progressive-leaning candidates and activist say that is further evidence of the importance of keeping Democrats in power to codify reproductive rights.
But Republicans are banking on other concerns being at the forefront of voters’ minds: namely a 40-year inflation high that has only slightly eased in the past year as wages remain flat.
August’s inflation levels were up 8.3% from the year prior, according to the U.S. Labor Department.
A USA TODAY/Suffolk Poll released this summer found one out of five voters said the economy in general was the top concern. Another 11% inflation cited inflation as the most important issue.
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